Tehran-ology and the Friedman Unit

Joe Klein writes the following on Iran:

A wiser alternative may be to stand down, for a while. "Turn away and whistle," an Iranian academic suggested recently. Don't abandon the nuclear-sanctions process, but don't force it, either. Don't pursue negotiations. Let the disgraced Iranian government pursue us, as it might, in order to rebuild credibility at home and in the world — and then make sure the regime's interest isn't just for show. After all, Iran isn't the most frightening nuclear challenge we're facing. That would be the next country over, Pakistan. In the latest National Interest, Bruce Riedel — who led the Obama Administration's Afghanistan and Pakistan policy review — suggests that a coup led by Islamist, Taliban-sympathetic elements of the Pakistani army remains a real possibility. Pakistan has at least 60 nuclear weapons. The chance that al-Qaeda sympathizers might gain access to those weapons is the real issue in Afghanistan and Pakistan. For the moment, it is far more important than anything happening in Iran.

I think Klein makes some good sense here (there's some nonsense to the article as well, but I'll set that aside for now). I see a problem in the way various bloggers and pundits have been offering seemingly nonstop, live-blogged accounts of everything happening in Iran on an almost daily basis.

I'm as big a Tehran-ologist as the next guy, and I find Iranian internal politics incredibly fascinating. But when even respected Iranian scholars are waxing hyperbolic over the latest speech, or the latest warning, or the latest repudiation, I then begin to wonder if we've let our passions and our biases get the better of us as analysts.

I think a good case could be made here for applying the Friedman Unit. In other words, and in all seriousness, the next six months -- note, not the next six minutes, hours or days -- just might be "the most important six months in U.S. foreign policy" regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran.

There are bigger geo-political questions that need answering here than whether or not Iranian insiders -- unhappy with other Iranian insiders -- can or can't usurp the power of Supreme Leader Khamenei. And more to the point, the United States will not answer those questions by getting bogged down in the daily twists and turns of the Iranian reform movement.

Unlike Klein, I take the Iranian nuclear program rather seriously. However, he's in part right to propose a cooling off period of American involvement.

Perhaps The Huffington Post could instead do a daily live-blog of the displaced in Sri Lanka, or the contested election in Kyrgyzstan. They -- along with a few others -- have an amazing ability to reach so many, and their efforts could go a long way toward educating people on problems in other parts of the world.