Did North Korea Fake its Nuclear Test?

Via Robert Farley, Geoffrey Forden sounds a skeptical note about North Korea's most recent nuclear test:

Let us suppose, for the moment, that the DPRK actually did explode 2,500 tons of TNT instead of a nuclear device. How could they load a tunnel with so much conventional explosive and not be detected by the West’s satellites? This was the real reason I was so sure it had been a nuclear explosion. I was convinced, unfortunately before doing a very simple calculation, that the trucks filled with high explosive (HE) would be detected.

However, it is not all that much HE. If TNT was used, as opposed to a higher density explosive like RDX, North Korea would only have to excavate a cavity 12 meters on a side and fill it with high explosives.

If four 10-ton trucks delivered their load each night (with a fifth truck coming every 10th day) they could drop off all the HE within two months. Using RDX, or some other higher density explosive, could significantly decrease this time. That seems quite doable and to be potentially undetectable by the West.

From one standpoint, it would make sense for the North Koreans to try to fool the world: they could potentially extract more generous concessions and, in light of the ongoing question of succession, it could keep potential external aggressors at bay. Still, as Forden notes, to really get clarity you'd have to get soil samples from the North's underground testing facility. Somehow, I don't see that happening any time soon.

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Photo credit: AP Photos