Handicapping Iran's Elections

Tomorrow, Iranians go to the polls with the possibility of unseating the internationally reviled Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But what, if anything, can these elections tell us about Iran? Yesterday RCW and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy convened a panel to review the state of play in Iran and what impact these elections will have on Iran's relations with America.

To offer some blog friendly highlights:

1. No matter who wins, don't expect change on key issues such as Iran's nuclear program and support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. According to the American Enterprises' Ali Alfoneh, the only winner will be the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - and he drives policy on these issues.

2. While the West frets about Iran's growing nuclear program and terror-ties, these issues aren't really on the radar for ordinary Iranians. They're are far more concerned about the economy, said Meir Javedanfar, director of the Middle East Economic and Political Analysis company and frequent RCW contributor.

3. The West is often blinded by characterizations of the players in Iran's political drama, said the Washington Institute's Mehdi Khalaji. "Reformers" aren't looking to fundamentally rework the Iranian system. They're clerics who cut their teeth in the revolutionary era but have no political allegiance to the current Supreme Leader.

On this point, Alfoneh recalled a debate between the reformist camp and Ahmadinejad supporters over Iran's nuclear program. The reformists noted that during their tenure, Iran was able to import sophisticated technology and nuclear know-how, often with willing help abroad. When the confrontational Ahmadinejad took over, the nuclear program was subjected to sanctions and had to proceed under much more onerous circumstances.

The message for Western observers rooting for a reformist win seemed to be, "be careful what you wish for."

Still, it's not totally doom and gloom. All the panelists agreed that, when pressured, the Supreme Leader will back down. He ended the Iran-Iraq war after repeated public pronouncements to the contrary. Javedanfar noted that while the Supreme Leader does not have the Iranian people as his top concern, he does try to forge a consensus and would be unlikely to proceed along a course that was resolutely opposed by a majority of the Iranian people.

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Photo credit: AP Photo