Al Qaeda Flees
Critics of the Obama administration's nation building efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan have noted that one of the glaring vulnerabilities of the plan is al Qaeda's ability to pick up and move on. So while we continue to wage a campaign against the natives, the transnational threat (i.e. the one that would actually kill Americans in America) can relocate.
As the New York Times reports, this could be happening in Pakistan:
American officials say they are seeing the first evidence that dozens of fighters with Al Qaeda, and a small handful of the terrorist group’s leaders, are moving to Somalia and Yemen from their principal haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas. In communications that are being watched carefully at the Pentagon, the White House and the Central Intelligence Agency, the terrorist groups in all three locations are now communicating more frequently, and apparently trying to coordinate their actions, the officials said.
The report stresses that these are fighters - not the senior leadership - but it's not a stretch to imagine that if things get hot in Pakistan, they'll hit the road too. Of course, that's a good thing. Wherever they wind up won't have nuclear weapons, even if the prospect of al Qaeda getting their hands on a nuke is more of a sensational headline than serious probability. If they're moving across borders they're going to be very vulnerable. But it does raise the question of what we do if/when other jihadists base camps pop up in other failed/failing states. Particularly, what happens if these camps arise while the U.S. is still nation building inside Pakistan?
The U.S. military can deploy rapidly - but not as rapidly as al Qaeda. And once the U.S. military does deploy, they tend to stay put.
The Obama administration, as well as Senators Kerry and Lugar, have a lot invested in helping Pakistani civil society - to the tune of $5 billion. If the NY Times reporting is accurate, and if a broader movement of al Qaeda leadership should occur, it raises a number of questions: Is the money we've promised to Pakistan still good if bin Laden and company depart? Is the establishment of a new safe haven in Somalia going to require the U.S. to nation build there too?
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Photo credit: AP Photos
