A Change in President Is NOT a Change in Government
It’s just too big, it’s going on for too many days, it’s in too many cities, and it’s too all-embracing. The regime has completely lost control of the space of public politics, and the opposition has been very skillful in taking it over. You can’t allow your opposition to develop a message so simple that everyone can embrace it. When you have a situation where all anyone needs to do to signal they’ve joined the opposition is to step into the street and start walking, where all they have to do is cry “Allahu Akbar” and it means they want the President to resign and cancel the elections, you’ve lost.Who knows, maybe I’m wrong. But I just can’t see Ahmadinejad holding on to power in the face of this.
I know I'm a broken record here, but this really can't be said enough: President Mir Hossein Mousavi would not be a change in government. Anything that will or won't change between Iran and the west could just as likely occur under President Ahmadinejad. President Obama realizes as much.
My heart and my sympathies are with the "Green" demonstrators, but, contrary to the views of a few, this does not yet resemble 1979. The protests are too small, and the endgame too uncertain. One has to truly understand just how unpopular Pahlavi was in Iran before they begin making such comparisons. Thus far, it isn't even close.
This isn't a revolution. It may be the start of a wonderful reform movement in Iran, and I truly hope it is. But it's incredibly narcissistic to assume that this unrest is in any way the indicator of major change in Iran. A more truly liberal Iran would be one that does not finance global terrorism, destabilize the region or pursue nuclear weapons in violation of international law. That would be a more liberal Iran. A President Mousavi may hope to bring that about, but there's no guarantee he'll actually deliver the goods -- Khatami couldn't.
This writer wants a more free and liberal Iran for the citizens of Iran. But there are bigger questions facing the world than whether or not Iranians get a fair vote. There needs to be substantive, constitutional reform in Iran before the country will become a more honest and open actor in the region. Maybe this movement can bring that about, but I don't see it yet.
What's happening in Iran this week is wonderful, but it doesn't answer all of the questions.
