Russia: Decoding Georgia and Economy
Russian media is trying to figure out where the political opposition in Georgia is heading - and whether their present course of action is beneficial for Georgia and future Russia-Georgia relations. As reported by the daily "Izvestia," "any agreement between current belligerents that leaves in power the leader of the "Rose Revolution" is akin to political suicide for the opponents of the president. The resignation of Saakashvili, by contrast, guarantees them a long and comfortable existence. The dilemma stems from the social order - according to the opposition leaders, "we did not bring people to the streets, they brought us out. ...""
The Russian paper analyzes further: "Saakashvili himself is resented by most of the population. A month ago, his approval rating did not exceed 11%. It is said that now, it's even lower. We can argue for a long time why Georgians together traditionally choose a national leader, and then just as traditionally band together for his overthrow. But the situation with Saakashvili is a unique one. Giorgiy Gachechiladze, host of a live reality show "Camera Number 5," reads a long list of sins of the President under the title why he should go. The list is bloody, and not just because of the war in South Ossetia. The Rose Revolution of 2003 - with all its democratic trappings - in fact turned out to be "a revolution against the handkerchief." But Saakashvili-liberal was in the process transformed into Saakshvili-bolshevik, whose aim was to create a new type of Georgian citizen. Ideally, the result of this experiment should have been a satisfied, obedient, confident and selfish man. Looking at some of the government authorities, we are convinced that the president has succeeded in his aims on a certain level. But then the process stalled - either the Georgians did not want to give up their personal advantages and disadvantages, or they refused to give up their identity, history, culture - and freedom. That sounds, perhaps, a bit stilted, but this is indeed the case."
Citing past support from the West, Izvestia notes that "at this time the Americans are perceived to hold neutrality in Georgia. It is said that Washington banned the President of Georgia from using force against the demonstrators. Nevertheless, the level of anti-Americanism in the ranks of protesters is considerably high. Especially after the comments of Matthew Bryza,representative of State Department, and U.S. Ambassador to Georgia John Tefta. The protesters are chanting: "Bush is gone - they [diplomats] remained." And most of the protesters are just laughing at the Europeans, since a prominent British political figure blamed the Georgian opposition by saying that "... in the UK, such issues are dealt with in Parliament." Izvestia notes that today, the Georgian parliament consists of only two real opposition figures, a dozen representatives of the "so-called opposition" and some one hundred supporters of President Saakashvili.
For its part, the Georgian opposition is ratcheting up pressure on the current administration - starting May 14, a new wave of protest commenced in Tbilisi, calling for the resignation of President Mikhail Saakashvili. The new protests should conclude with a mass popular demonstration on May 26, Georgia's Independence Day. If that actually takes place, the Georgian leader, known for his passion for pompous activities, may "lose" the traditional yearly military parade on Rustaveli Avenue in the center of the city. Therefore, the authorities are trying to divide the ranks of the opposition. The opposition maintains that its main requirement is holding of early presidential and parliamentary elections.
Meanwhile, Sergei Bagapsh, President of Abkhazia (a Georgian break-away province), was recently asked by a journalist whether, in the near future, Abkhazia will turn to Moscow with a request to join the Russian Federation. Bagapsh retorted back: "How can we contact Russia on this matter in the near future, if Russia has recently recognized us as an independent state?" Russia has recently officially recognized Abkhazian and South Ossetian borders as official borders of independent countries. Georgia, United States, European Union and a host of other countries maintain the territorial integrity of Georgia that includes these two breakaway regions.
Russia is seriously banking on the emergence of Asia as a counter-weight to the United States in global affairs, and is making necessary preparations for such a reorientation. Daily "Izvestia" comments on this emerging trend: "Asia seems tired of looking U.S. "in the mouth", putting its well-being at the mercy of the world's largest economy. It is the Asian countries that are most interested in changing the existing world order. What was the situation like before? China was producing consumer goods, selling them mostly in the United States, lending America huge sums of money to stir up consumer mindset. China itself was running up huge dollar reserves. This might as well have continued, if not for the crisis."
The paper further reports that in early May, China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN countries (Singapore, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and others) have agreed on the establishment of a regional foreign exchange reserve of $120 billion that would be allocating funds in the form of loans to countries - members of the pool- during financial crisis. "This is not just some Asian fund of Mutual Assistance - this smells like an alternative International Monetary Fund. In the near future, according to the experts, the Chinese yuan could be the leading currency for settlements in the Asian region. Then, given the enormous industrial and consumer turnover of Asian countries, they no longer will need to accumulate huge dollar reserves."
The argument for Russian role in this emerging economic reality is broken down accordingly: "So whats for Russia in all of this? At present, we stand on the sidelines of the revolutionary transformation of the economic world order. We pray for high oil prices. Why? So that once again we can accumulate dollar reserves and invest in the United States? What for? At the same time, Russia does not belong to any serious economic bloc."
"The world will be divided into three main regions: the Americas, Europe and the East, warn the economists. United States will lose some of its power, the leadership will shift towards Asia. That is why America is in a hurry to make friends with China, in order to prevent the creation of a powerful Asian bloc. Where is Russia in the new structure of the world? The East, of course, is closer to us. Already, 96% of Russia's far eastern exports are geared for consumption by the neighboring Asian countries. We need to unite with them - especially in an era of globalization."
