Mexico: Looking to 2012 Election

Marcelo Ebrard has announced his intention to run for president in 2012. Ebrard is a member of the PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution) and is currently the Head of Government of the Federal District (sometimes referred to as the mayor of Mexico City). His presidential aspirations have not been without some controversy.

First, there is the matter of PRD unity. Ebrard, for the most part, got his start by aligning himself with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the unsuccessful candidate for president in 2006. Lopez Obrador made Ebrard the chief of police in Mexico City while Lopez Obrador served as the mayor of Mexico City. Lopez Obrador and Ebrard had worked together to implement recommendations by Rudy Giuliani, when he came to Mexico City in 2003 to look for ways to improve security. When President Fox directly fired Ebrard in 2004 after an angry mob lynched some undercover cops, Lopez Obrador later reinstated Ebrard as Secretary of Social Development. Lopez Obrador lost a very close presidential election (an election that he still believes was rigged) in 2006 to President Calderon. Now, Ebrard’s emergence is creating a rift within the PRD that may have already existed for sometime.

Jesus Ortega Martinez, the leader of the PRD, has made it clear that Ebrard has every right to position himself for the presidency. While he rejected that Ebrard’s declaration closes the path of Lopez Obrador to become the nominee of the party, he admitted that any candidate within the party wishing to run for president lacks a lot time. Ebrard has already gained the support of many of the left-wing groups that encompass the PRD. The Izquierda Democratica Nacional has declared that it would support Ebrard. Jesus Zambrano, head of the Nueva Izquierda (the New Left) stated that he applauds Ebrard’s entrance into the race, but he also cautioned that this does not mean that the PRD already has a candidate.

If the Ebrard-Lopez Obrador split has the potential of breaking apart the PRD, then one would not know from watching the responses from the PAN (President Calderon’s party). At the very least, the PAN is not taking a chance that the PRD will be irrelevant in future elections. This past week the head of the PAN, Cesar Nava, stated that while it is okay that Ebrard has presidential aspirations, it is not okay for him to use public resources as the mayor of Mexico City to build on those aspirations. Nava’s comments are more than likely an indication of how political opponents of Ebrard will criticize him in the future.

Meanwhile the coalition that President Calderon built in order to come to power in 2006 has been slowly crumbling in the past year. This past week, Elba Esther Gordillo, a former member of the PRI party and the current head of Mexico’s largest teacher's union, emphasized the costs that Calderon’s war against crime has created. Her comments were made in front of the president, when the two were celebrating the Day of the Teacher. Elba is arguably the most powerful woman in Mexico and her support in 2006 was essential for Calderon to sneak by Lopez Obrador. In Mexico, presidents serve only one term and it is not yet certain who will emerge to run in President Calderon’s party.