In Praise of Bad Policy

Commentary's Abe Greenwald suggests that erratic decision-making is the hallmark of a good foreign policy:

However, there is something missing from most discussions of Bush’s and Obama’s foreign policies: the element of unpredictability. Because Bush launched two invasions in his first term, America’s enemies were never sure that his willingness to engage in foreign adventures was depleted. Such uncertainty was reinforced by Bush’s determination to see the Iraq War through its season of catastrophe. Who could ultimately say if the guy who decided to topple Saddam and rebuild Iraq (and who followed through!) would shy away from a bombing campaign on Iran or even North Korea?

Indeed. And if you're Iran and North Korea, and you're unsure if you're about to be bombed or invaded, the natural reaction is to forswear nuclear weapons and long-range missile technology that would be useful in deterring the erratic and unpredictable American threat.