The Path of Most Resistance

The New York Times reports today on elements within Pakistan's intelligence service continuing to prop up the Taliban as it wages war in Afghanistan.

The upshot is that threats to "bomb them into the stone-age" and "bribe them into the industrial age" have not altered Pakistan's behavior toward the Taliban. Much like the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, Pakistan's support for the Taliban in Afghanistan is apparently at the level of vital interest. It's not something amenable to threats, bribes, brilliant diplomacy, etc.

The Obama administration seems to understand this. They have accepted the argument that it cannot get Pakistan to see things our way unless we change how the Pakistanis view their strategic environment. If there's less tension with India, the thinking goes, then Pakistan won't have to nurture the Taliban in Afghanistan for "strategic depth." Ergo Ambassador Holbrooke is sent to South Asia to work his magic.

The problem with this strategy is that it's extremely difficult and time consuming. Afghanistan is falling apart now. Al Qaeda is plotting attacks now. The pay-offs from any settlement with India would be years off - if at all. And the U.S. has a mixed record when it comes to successfully helping nations bury old hatchets.