The Ayatollah's Juggling Act

This LA Times piece on the presidential race heating up in Iran is well worth the read, if for nothing else other than news of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad purchasing votes with $60 "Justice Shares."

But this all-important snippet especially caught my eye:

The early campaigning underscores the divisive and decisive nature of the June 12 presidential election, which may determine whether Iran and the United States achieve some kind of understanding on a variety of issues, including the Islamic Republic's controversial nuclear program.

Iran's political system combines elements of a democratic republic and a theocracy. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei oversees crucial matters of state, such as relations with the U.S., but has to contend with a dynamic political system and numerous centers of power, including think tanks, religious charities and the military. Candidates for public office must demonstrate fealty to the Islamic system, yet they compete ferociously.

"Whoever takes over will have a vote . . . in the decision-making process," said Mohammad Hassan Khani, a professor of political science at Imam Sadegh University in Tehran, the capital. "It matters who is going to be next president as far as the Iranian-American relationship is concerned. [But] to some extent it is not going to determine the future of the relationship because the decision is not his."

The political establishment is grouped into about half a dozen factions that include liberals like Khatami who call themselves reformists, conservatives who call themselves "principlists," and groups in between switching partners in a dance of shifting alliances.

It's crucial to remember that presidential elections in Iran are half charade and half substance. While the players in the show may be somewhat marginal, they often do represent a sample size of the ideological tug of war going on within the country's leadership base.

And Ayatollah Khamenei's support isn't necessarily static. Although he may line up closer with Ahmadinejad and his ilk ideologically speaking, he must preside over the regime under the auspices of infallibility.

A good example is the Pope and his relationship with the Holy See. While there is a clear hierarchy to the regime, the Pope must balance this relationship off of his various agencies and power centers in order to keep up proper appearances. Popes have reversed course on Catholic doctrine, enacted reforms, and subsequently overturned the reforms of their predecessors. In other words, the Supreme Leader can appear to waver, but he can never appear to be utterly clueless to the trends of the country. If he does, his role as the land's primary Jurist comes into question.

Khatami embarrassed and surprised Khamenei in 1997. It'll be interesting to see how that race impacts his support in 2009.