China: Tough Economic Times Ahead

The Chinese world spent most of the past week celebrating the lunar new year and has started returning to the work of pushing the economy forward bit by bit. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao optimistically predicted that his nation's GDP growth would hit the magic 8% mark this year, popularly considered to be the rate China would need to reach in order to continue to provide employment for current and new workers.

Apart from doubts over the accuracy of officially reported statistics, there are indications that China's economy is being hit hard by the global financial crisis. Many Taiwanese businessmen originally posted to China have been recalled to Taiwan or laid off. Millions of migrant workers are also finding themselves without a job to return to after the new year.

Lan Weiwei, the deputy editor-in-chief of Southern Metropolis Weekly, shares on his widely read blog about his experience returning to his hometown for the new year:

This year's winter will probably be even longer than expected. Everybody wishes that it could be like previous years where after the fifth or sixth day of the Chinese new year they would be rushing back to the city to work. The situation this year is a lot different. Although the official day to start work this year has moved up a day earlier than previous years, it seems like people are not in such a hurry to get back to work. ... Before, there were people who were indispensable to the factories or companies they worked for. This year, they have become idle.

This is especially the case for my relatives and childhood friends who have been working in Guangdong. Most of them do not know whether they will have jobs this year. Some of them who worked at factories were told to return home and wait there until they received notification to go back to work. They realize, however, that the notification this year will arrive later than usual.