A Recipe For Staying

John Barry's analysis in Newsweek on President Obama's withdrawal announcement strikes me as a pitch-perfect summation of the conventional wisdom on the subject. Which is why statements like this are so troubling:

The December elections aren't a sure thing, which is why the continuing presence of U.S. troops is essential. A U.S. military presence is, and will be for some years to come, the ultimate guarantor that the factions within this new state have to settle their political differences by argument and compromise rather than firepower.

But that's simply not true. Violence exploded under the nose of nearly 130,000 U.S. troops during 2006. The most significant political development in Iraq was the decision by Sunni tribes to turn on al Qaeda in Iraq - a decision that predated the influx of "surge" forces. If Iraq's political factions decide to return to violence, then Iraq will become a very violent place again regardless of how many U.S. troops are in the country.

The current dynamic that Obama has put in place - and Barry lauds - surrenders the decision about the disposition of U.S. military forces to Iraq's various political actors. We are withdrawing but for the grace of their quiescence.