How to Solve a Foreign Policy Problem II

Jim Arkedis at the Progressive Policy Institute says that I'm missing the point when I expressed skepticism of General Petraeus' attempt to "regionalize" the challenge of Afghanistan.

Arkedis writes:

...linking Afghanistan to Pakistan isn’t an attempt at making the problem bigger; rather, it’s a simple strategic necessity. Achieving any modest goal in Afghanistan is more often than not tethered to Pakistan. NATO and the US could harden every target imaginable in Afghanistan, but if we don’t address the root of the problem - that militias in Afghanistan are drawing significant support from counterparts across the border in Pakistan - then we will bring at best fragile peace to Afghanistan.

As I understand it, and as Obama himself has said, the problems in Pakistan relate to its stand off with India. That is why they have cultivated the extremist elements now waging war against U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

So attempts to bring Pakistan around must hinge on bringing the Kashmir standoff to some kind of resolution. And that is a tall order to say the least. Understanding the solution and implementing it are two vastly different things. Exhibit A: Israel/Palestine. There is a fairly broad agreement about what a "final settlement" will look like, yet getting there has never been harder.

If we go off on a half-cocked effort to bring peace to India and Pakistan, we could find ourselves in a situation akin to the decades long effort to resolve the Israel/Palestine issue. We won't actually bring peace, but we will ensure that the parties to the conflict come to either resent the U.S. or come to depend on the U.S. for security and arms. Any settlement - should it come - would be years in the making while the al Qaeda and Taliban elements inside Afghanistan have to be dealt with immediately. Only a swift and significant change in the Pakistani military's cost/benefit analysis will do that - and if threats of being "bombed to the stone age" and billions in largely misappropriated U.S. aid haven't done it, I'm at a loss to think of what will.

This isn't to say that no effort should be made to relieve the fear in Pakistan that the U.S. is conspiring with India to splinter the country. But that effort should be modest and kept quiet.