Can Iraq be South Korea?
Alissa Rubin writes in the New York Times about America's disengagement from Iraq on the heels of what looks like a very peaceful election:
Still, the American era in Iraq is nowhere near a final act. If this were an opera, it would be just past midway in the libretto. While both sides are disconnecting, neither can let go entirely.
The Iraqis need the Americans not just to dampen terrorist activities within the country but to protect them from rapacious neighbors. Syria and Iran have interfered here since the invasion, and while the Iraqis are often uncomfortable with how the American have reined in these powers, they are reluctant to stop them because they fear their neighbors more.
When American forces pursued insurgents over the Iraqi border into Syria in late October, it was an international incident. Iraq was embarrassed in front of the Arab world. Such incidents are likely to recur and could become much more fraught.
For the United States, Iraq remains a strategic prize close to the Middle East flash points of Israel, Lebanon and Syria as well as Iran and the oil-rich Persian Gulf countries. It is not by chance that the Central Intelligence Agency has its largest station in the world in Baghdad.
I think one of the major unanswered questions facing the U.S. in Iraq is whether the country is ultimately willing to tolerate a "South Korea" like encampment of U.S. forces for years and perhaps decades to come.