Russia: US Vote Impact Unknown
Russian newspapers seem to be summarizing the impending victory of Senator Obama. Rossiskaya Gazeta (Russian Gazette) cites that Obama may have gotten as much as 55% in early voting drive across the country - noting also that 17% of the people already cast their vote.
The same publication described Obama's enormous campaign finance advantage over Senator McCain - hinting that such advantage may translate into a victory for the Democratic candidate. But it finished the analysis by noting the famous "Dewey Defeats Truman" photo-op that marked perhaps the biggest American surprise over the last 60 years.
Daily Utro (Morning) publication described a conference titled "Russia's Choice- Obama or McCain," in which the participants concluded that regardless of who will occupy the White House, America's pressure on Russia will increase. The experts concluded that Obama will pay more attention to Russia's internal politics, such as freedom of speech and freedom of the press; while McCain will be busy constructing "cordon sanitaire" around Russia by solidifying the alliances with Ukraine and Georgia. Either scenario is deemed unwelcome in Moscow, but the article cites Andrei Kokoshin, Duma Deputy, stating that Russia is willing to continue dialogue with Washington after the November 4 elections.
Daily Vzglyad publication cites that Senator Obama is alreday putting together a White House team that will include Rham Emmanuel as the Chief of Staff. The confident tone of the article suggests a foregone conclusion about the elections.
In a separate Vzglyad analysis titled "Elephants are Hoping for a Miracle," the authors suggest that a McCain victory will be just as unexpected as Harry Truman's 1948 upset over Thomas Dewey. The article notes that so far, McCain is behind by only 5% and he can overcome this gap at the last moment:
At this point, the real nail-biting in the Russian media will begin on Monday, when the U.S. voters will be less than 48 hours from the final decision. Most news outlets at this point are limiting themselves to reports of the early voting results and major polling numbers, which so far put Senator Obama ahead of Senator McCain. At the same time, Russian are no longer optimistic that McCain's possible loss would mean "easier" relations with Obama's administration. The reality of the overall complexity of US-Russia relations is sinking in for Moscow.
