First Call for the New President: Help Russia?

That the crises a president faces are rarely those he campaigned on has become a commonplace. So perhaps on this election eve it's worthwhile to take note of a one possible angle to the global financial crisis that has gotten little attention so far: Russia's possible economic collapse. Time's Yuri Zarakhovich paints an incredibly bleak picture:

The hydrocarbon windfall that fueled the Russian state's recent revival appears unable to offer a solution to the crisis. Russian foreign-currency reserves that stood at almost $600 billion last August have shrunk to $485 billion as the state has been forced to spend to bail out state-run banks and prevent abrupt devaluation of the weakening ruble. There is no telling if the policy has worked, though, and there's worse to come: major state-run corporations such as Gazprom and Rosneft, as well as Russia's regional governments, have accumulated debts amounting to some $448 billion that can't be paid without the help of the federal government. Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin has just called for another $100 billion to bail out major companies, which can expect to jump ahead of the regions in the line for government assistance. If the federal government declines to bail out the regions, however, the consequence could be the "soft" disintegration of the Russian Federation, says one savvy business executive — the regions could begin to withhold some of the taxes they collect on Moscow's behalf. Already, some regions in Russia's far east are more integrated into the Chinese economy than the Russian one.

Privately, bankers and businessmen warn of a lack of currency to import food and the failure of local producers to replace imports. The supplies of foodstuffs available on Moscow supermarket shelves are shrinking as importers struggle to raise credit to replenish their stocks. Even the vodka has disappeared from the shelves of my two village stores — they can't raise credit to pay their supplier. And at least two major national alcohol producers have recently folded.

Just a few months ago Russia had shocked with the world with its willingness to use a rejuvenated military might based on an economy hopped up on oil and gas revenues. But what if, just as was the case with the Soviet Union in the '70s and '80s, the short spike in petroleum revenues only set the Russian system up for collapse? Given the enormous bad will that Russia's aggression has generated, would the IMF consider intervening? Would the US or EU? What if Russia's troubles threaten to pull down other regional economies? What if Russia claimed that, without access to credit, it couldn't continue gas shipments to European consumers?

I'm not actually predicting any of this will happen - but it is increasingly becoming a possibility, and that alone should be humbling to anyone who tries to anticipate what's going to happen out there. And I'd wager that the possibility of a need to consider any help for Russia, of all places, has occupied precisely none of the time of the candidates', or their advisers', thoughts about the future