Quebec Votes 2008

A few days ago, there definitely was en election 'buzz' in Quebec. Today, this 'buzz' morphed into an utmost certainty.

As is the case in all Westminster-style democracies, the Quebec legislature's fate lies in the hands of its Prime Minister Jean Charest. Many signs show that Mr. Charest has already made his decision, and that Quebec voters will go to the polls on December 8.

Why should international readers bother on what happens in federalized sub-states elections? First of all, because no election is completley uninteresting. Second, the results of Quebec elections will give us an idea of the relative strength of the sovereingtist movement (whose goal is Quebec's independence from Canada) versus its federalist adversaries (whose goal is constitutional status quo).

Let's take a look at the makeup of the present National Assembly (Quebec's sole legislative body), which holds 125 seats total:

Liberals (centrist federalist): 48

ADQ (centre-right federalist): 39

PQ (centre-left sovereigntist): 36

Independents: 2

The current minority government is formed by the Liberal Party and lead by PM Jean Charest.

Mr. Charest's main argument to dissolve the Assembly goes as follows: "During an economic crisis, Quebecers need a strong majority government." The main problem is, federal elections just took place ywo weeks ago and some liberals fear that forcing elections will encounter a backlash of voters who have grown election-fatigued. Of course, the only reasons why Mr. Charest wants to go to the polls is that he believes the actual polling numbers are good enough to allow him to form a majority government.

What about the polls? The latest from CROP gives this picture:

Liberals: 38%

PQ: 32%

ADQ: 17%

These numbers may seem favorable for the Liberals at first glance, but when broken down regionaly and by linguistic groups, the story becomes a bit different. Liberals owe their lead to their popularity in urban centres, mainly Montreal and Quebec City. However, among Quebec's Francophones (which make up to 83% of the population), the PQ is ahead with 38% as the Liberals trail at 30%. With these kinds of numbers, many rural ridings that went for ADQ in 2007 could swing back to the PQ, therefore effectively blocking a Liberal majority government. Depending upon the campaign, the PQ has a good shot at winning this election, or at least to come back as the official opposition after the historic beating it took back in 2007.

As far as Mr. Dumont's ADQ is concerned, 17% is a nightmare number that throws the ADQ into the back seats of the National Assembly. In a first-past-the-post electoral system, 17% means not more than five or six ridings. This would be a major setback for Mr. Dumont and his party.

Now, the campaign buses are rented, the candidates' official photos are taken ... Nothing can stop the electoral train when it starts. Of course, Mr. Charest could back off at the last minute. But his recent declarations suggest nothing of the sort. Quebecers, get ready, because we're going to vote on December 8 - for the fourth time in two years.