Canadian Liberals: Who's Next?

The Liberal Party of Canada, a once formidable money-raising, power-grabbing machine, suffered its heaviest seat loss since 1984 (40 seats under John Turner's leadership). At 77 seats, Mr. Stephan Dion was able to save a few strongholds but this is mainly due to Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, as the Liberal Party's performance in 2008 (26%) is even worse than it was in 1984 (28%).

After such a crippling defeat, it was inevitable that Mr. Dion's leadership would be questioned. Six days after the election, under intense pressure, he announced that he would step down as party leader, thus launching a leadership race. For now, all we can do is offer a brief survey of the top contenders since the election date and the finance rules are to be announced later on by party officials. I have separated them in categories, because the list is getting longer everyday.

Leftovers from the last leadership race, in 2006

- Michael Ignatieff: Both a leftover from the last race AND party heavyweight, Mr. Ignatieff is one of the most respected members of the House of Commons. This is somehow exceptional because Mr. Ignatieff has been in politics for only three years now. A former international law academic, he does have the credibility and the ideas usually found in acclaimed intellectuals. As opposed to Mr. Dion, who also was a respected intellectual figure, Mr. Ignatieff also has political instinct and charisma. He will definitely be one of the top contenders.

- Bob Rae: Mr. Rae also is both a leftover from the latest race AND party heavyweight. He has a few advantages over Mr. Ignatieff, but mostly experience. Indeed, Mr. Rae is a former NDP PM from Ontario, which makes him one the contenders with the most executive experience. However, Mr. Rae's years as Ontario PM are remembered by Ontarians as years of plunging deficits and economic crisis. His adversaries will pound him relentlessly on this issue.

- Gerard Kennedy: Mr. Kennedy finished 4th in the first round of the liberal leadership race in 2006. By aligning himself with Mr. Dion, who finished 3rd, he effectively made a king-maker out of himself. He still hasn't stated his intentions for 2008, but I would be very surprised not to see him enter the race.

Party heavyweights

- Frank McKenna: Mr. McKenna is a 10-year former PM of New Brunswick, former ambassador to the US and a successful businessman. Although he chose not to enter the race in 2006, pundits believe he might want to make the jump in 2008. Although his résumé is very interesting, he would start behind his opponents when it comes to his mastery of the French language: Mr. Mckenna is an unilingual anglophone, and that pretty much disqualifies him from winning anymore than 10 seats in Quebec. He pledged to learn French if he were to enter the race, but this factor will definitely play against him, especially when compared to anglophones such as Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae who speak good French.

- John Manley: Former foreign affairs and finance minister under the Chrétien government, Mr. Manley is part of the party establishment. I would not count too much on his candidacy though, as his lack of charisma and warmth have not allowed him to connect with base party members or voters.

New comers

- Dominic LeBlanc: A Liberal MP from New Brunswick, Mr. LeBlanc is the first officially declared candidate for party leader. He stated that he would run as a centrist, effectively attacking Mr. Dion's green shift that he perceived as a move too far to the left. For those seeking alternatives to Ignatieff, Rae, Mckenna and Co., he might be an interesting voice in the race. He also is fluently bilingual, which makes him a potentially competitive contender.

- Justin Trudeau: A political newbie, Justin Trudeau is the son of former Canadian PM Pierre-Elliot Trudeau. His last name is synonymous with multiculturalism, thus making him very popular among ethnic and religious communities and with the traditionaly liberal party base. But that which is seen as good in Ontario and in ethnic communities is not necessarily seen as good elsewhere: In Quebec, he is mostly perceived as arrogant and careless about Quebeckers as a national minority. Many in his party fear that his election would be tantamount to handing back Quebec to the sovereigntist movement.

If I had to rate these candidacies, from best to worse (in the perspective of a Liberal who wants to win a majority in the next federal election):

1. Ignatieff

2. McKenna

3. Rae

4. LeBlanc

5. Kennedy

6. Manley

7. Trudeau