Don't Fear Iranian Influence in Iraq

One of the staple concerns about an American withdrawal from Iraq is the fear about "Iranian influence." Here's John McCain during the second debate:

If we had done what Sen. Obama wanted done in Iraq, and that was set a date for withdrawal, which Gen. [David] Petraeus, our chief -- chairman of our Joint Chiefs of Staff said would be a very dangerous course to take for America, then we would have had a wider war, we would have been back, Iranian influence would have increased, al Qaeda would have re- established a base.

This always struck me as one of the least tenable objections to a troop withdrawal. Thanks to the wonders of modern cartography, we see that Iran and Iraq are neighbors. Therefore, Iran will always influence Iraq. And vice-versa. Indeed, even when the countries were arrayed against each-other, Iran influenced Iraqi policy. We learned from Saddam Hussein himself that his boasts regarding WMD were specifically aimed at Iran, not the U.S.

So inchoate references to "Iranian influence" don't amount to much of an argument. Of course, opponents of Iranian influence are specifically referring to Iraq's propensity to ally with its neighbor, instead of us. Or worse, to Iran's ability to subvert the Iraqi government to its own ends.

Which brings us to this report in the Washington Post on the continued difficulty that U.S. negotiators are having reaching an agreement with Iraq on U.S. forces: "Frustrated over what they consider Iraqi intransigence, administration officials have said Iranian meddling is keeping Shiite leaders from accommodating U.S. bottom lines."

In other words, the current Iraqi government - the one referred to by McCain and the war's remaining supporters as the fruits of our victory - is already aligning with Iran contrary to our demands.

I don't see any way around this. Outside of fundamentally up-ending Iraq's constitutional government and re-installing the anti-Iranian Sunni Baathists, Iran is going to exert a significant influence in Iraq. Even, or perhaps especially, if we "win."