What Everyone Should Be Talking About Today

This is stunning:

Israel gave serious thought this spring to launching a military strike on Iran's nuclear sites but was told by President George W Bush that he would not support it and did not expect to revise that view for the rest of his presidency, senior European diplomatic sources have told the Guardian.

The then prime minister, Ehud Olmert, used the occasion of Bush's trip to Israel for the 60th anniversary of the state's founding to raise the issue in a one-on-one meeting on May 14, the sources said. "He took it [the refusal of a US green light] as where they were at the moment, and that the US position was unlikely to change as long as Bush was in office", they added.

First, of course, the obligatory caution: this story is poorly sourced, and could be wrong.

But, assuming the editors of the Guardian know what they're doing and there is reason to believe this is true, this story changes all of the conventional wisdom about the Middle East.

First, evidently the US administration actually is exerting a restraining influence over Israel. Not many people seriously thought that.

Second, Israel is far more convinced of the seriousness of Iran's nuclear program than anyone else thought. They would have risked a serious retaliatory strike in order to undertake the aerial raid.

Third, the US invasion of Iraq has oddly constrained Israeli actions. Later in the article, it is explained that Israel could have attacked Iran without US approval - if only the US didn't control Iraq's airspace, which lies between Israel and Iran.

Fourth, solving the Iranian nuclear problem is going to be a lot harder than either presidential candidate lets on, or perhaps appreciates. They've gotten far enough to bring Israel to advocate war, yet the options are so bad that the Bush administration ruled out an attack. That does not leave a lot of room to maneuver for whoever inherits this situation.