Updated Seat Projections in Canada

Here are the latest seat projections from democraticSPACE:

Tories at 150 seats (38,9%)

Liberals at 86 seats (25,5%)

Bloc at 40 seats (8%)

NDP at 30 seats (16,9%)

2 independents

155 seats are needed to form a majority in Canada's 308 seats House of Commons.

In Quebec (75 seats total):

Bloc at 40 (32,7%)

Tories at 17 (27,3%)

Liberals at 16 (19,7%)

NDP at 1 (12,5%)

1 independent

Lots of new polling numbers came out in the last few days.

Harris-Decima: Tories at 38%, Liberals at 28%, NDP at 15%, Greens at 10%. In Quebec, Bloc is at 33%, Tories at 25%, Liberals at 22%, NDP at 11%.

Léger Marketing in Quebec: Tories at 34%, Bloc at 32%, Liberals at 20%, NDP at 9%

Strategic Counsel poll of key swing ridings:

Quebec: Bloc at 31%, Tories at 26%, Liberals at 23%, NDP at 13%

Ontario: Tories at 35%, Liberals at 35%, NDP at 18%

As you can see, some of these numbers are contradictory. For the first time, a poll shows the Bloc actually trailing the Tories in Quebec. However, most polls, especially those targeting key swing ridings, show that Tory support is sagging in Quebec and Ontario. Stay tuned as more numbers will start coming in the next few days.