Poll: Conservatives Cruising in Canada
Guest post and translation provided by RCW Intern Marc Desnoyers
"Dans l’ensemble du Canada, le Parti conservateur détient une avance considérable de 18 points de pourcentage sur les libéraux de Stéphane Dion, qui stagnent à 25%. Le NPD et le Parti vert obtiennent respectivement 15% et 7% dans ce sondage, réalisé auprès de 1288 répondants – dont 450 au Québec et 450 en Ontario –, et précis à 2,7 points près, 19 fois sur 20.Au Québec, le Bloc est toujours en tête, avec 35% des intentions de vote. Les conservateurs sont bons deuxièmes, à 30%. C’est la débâcle pour le Parti libéral, qui chute à 17%, son plus mauvais résultat depuis octobre 2007.
Mais c’est en Ontario que le chef conservateur fait le plus de gains. Par rapport au mois de février, les libéraux ont reculé de 43% à 31%, directement au profit des troupes de M. Harper, qui grimpent de 32% à 44%."
Translation: "In the whole of Canada, the Conservative Party, at 43%, is significantly ahead, by 18 points over Stéphane Dion's Liberals, which remain at 25%. The NDP (left-wing Federalist) and the Green Party respectively get 15% and 7% in this poll, which sampled 1,288 respondents, among them 450 in Quebec and 450 in Ontario. The margin of error is 2.7% with 95% confidence.
In Quebec, the Bloc remains ahead, with 35% of support among likely voters. The Conservatives are a solid second, at 30%. It's a debacle for the Liberal Party, its 17% supports is its worst showing since October 2007.
But it is in Ontario where the Conservative leader makes the most gains. Compared to last February, the Liberals' support has sagged from 43% to 31%, directly profiting Mr. Harper's troops, whose numbers rose from 32% to 44%."
Segma, the firm which produced this poll, projects that Stephen Harper's Conservatives could win 183 seats in the House, whilst only 155 are needed to get a majority. Under this scenario, the Conservatives would steal 5 seats from the Bloc in Quebec and more than 30 seats from the Liberals in Ontario.
