Spy vs. Spy

Israeli officials feel confident this week that Iran could be in possession of nuclear weapons as early as 2009. The Jerusalem Post first broke the story:

Iran, a senior defense official said on Tuesday, had encountered numerous technical obstacles on its way to enriching uranium but was now on track to master the technology needed to enrich uranium within six months.

Israel is also concerned that Teheran is developing a cruise missile that can evade interception by the Arrow, the IDF's anti-ballistic missile defense system. Iran is suspected of having smuggled Ukrainian X-55 cruise missiles and using them as models for an independent, domestic project. A cruise missile, which flies at low altitudes to dodge radar detection and interception, could be used to carry a nuclear warhead.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Tuesday that Israel had the ability to create the tools needed to ensure its continued existence. Hinting at Iran, Olmert said that nothing in the world could undermine or bring an end to Israel's existence.

In a speech to a Keren Hayesod group, Olmert said, "I am asking that you take this with you and tell it to your communities everywhere - the people of Israel are strong, the State of Israel is strong, there is no enemy that can destroy us."

"We will not place ourselves in a position where anyone will, in an effective manner, threaten us with destruction, because if there was one thing that has changed since the establishment of the State of Israel 60 years ago until today, it is not that here the Jews are safe in every situation, in every condition and that there will not be any dangers," Olmert said. "There are also dangers here, like in many other places.

"But here, my friends, the Jewish people can fight, and when it needs to, it fights, and when it fights, it wins."

The United States reported late last year that Iran had likely been pursuing a weapons progam until the fall of 2003. The NIE was less confident on that program's current status, leaving most to assume that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program the following year. These latest findings by Israel's Mossad agency have disrupted that assumption.

There are cynical and sympathetic observations to be made here. The former might assume that this is a little bit of posturing from an Israeli society celebrating its 60th birthday, or that this might aid in putting a larger wedge between Iran and its surrogates. The Syrians sound amiable to discussing a peace-for-land deal with Israel; which could assist Israel's efforts to pacify Hamas, Hezbollah and other resistance groups in the region. If they can make the case that Iran is going in the opposite direction of the world community, perhaps Syria will be more eager to negotiate.

Israeli officials will meet with Britain's MI6 later this month, in hopes of convincing the West to revise their conflicting estimates. Iran continues to reject incentives being proposed by world leaders, most of whom want the republic to place a moratorium on its uranium enrichment. Israel's latest findings may be a calculated effort to assist Iran with its enrichment hang-up.