Summary
After 10 years in Bolivia's highest office, President Evo Morales has begun to lose his grip on power. The failure of a constitutional referendum that would have extended term limits means he will not be able to run for re-election in 2019. But even though Morales' charisma is central to his Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party's popularity, the referendum vote does not give an opposition candidate the upper hand in the next presidential election. Opposition parties are still disorganized, and the country's strong ethnic and regional identities will make it difficult for their candidates to gain national traction. At the same time, internal rivalries among the ruling party's elite will complicate its quest to retain the office.
Before his term ends, Morales will work to bolster his popularity while trying to groom a successor. He will be forced to referee the power struggle among his party's leaders over who will be his chosen heir, a contest that has the potential to weaken the MAS. But no matter who wins the office in 2019, constraints on Bolivia's economy placed by falling hydrocarbon revenue will limit the next president's ability to implement the same populist policies that propelled Morales to his current status.
Analysis
From the highlands of La Paz, Morales has ruled Bolivia virtually unchallenged since 2006. The longest-serving president in Bolivian history, he has enacted policies that have left an indelible mark on Bolivian politics and set a pattern of expropriations that both the opposition and the MAS may follow.
Before Morales took office, Bolivia's political system was in chaos. From 2001 to 2005, Bolivia had five presidents and was considered one of Latin America's most politically unstable countries. When Morales started his term, surging fuel prices and inefficient public services had caused massive protests. The country's international reserves stood at only $3 billion. Morales implemented a series of policies that elevated his - and by extension, his party's - popularity. During this period, Morales expropriated foreign mining and energy-related assets, including the country's electric power sector and strategic infrastructure. These moves, along with sustained revenue from the sale of natural gas to Brazil and Argentina, invigorated Bolivia's economy and gave Morales the popularity to easily win re-election in 2009 and 2014.
Morales, a member of the Aymara ethnic group, has fashioned Bolivia according to his ethnic identity and socialist philosophy. He championed the rights of its indigenous population and improved the country's public health care and educational systems. Under his leadership, the country has experienced economic growth of about 5 percent annually and now has international reserves of about $13 billion.
However, despite his popularity Morales conceded defeat Feb. 24 when 51.3 percent of voters rejected the referendum that would have removed the three-term limit on the office of the president. While it is difficult to deduce exactly why Morales lost, especially given Bolivia's economic strength and his continued high approval ratings, blame could rest on voter discomfort with his long authoritarian rule and a recent corruption scandal that involved Morales' former lover and a Chinese company that secured $500 million in contracts with his administration. The term-limit referendum won a majority in La Paz, Oruro and Cochabamba - majority indigenous ethnic regions - but failed in the remaining six departments, which have a mixed indigenous and mestizo populations. However, the defeat does not necessarily mean that the MAS will lose its power; opposition forces will be even more constrained before the 2019 presidential elections.
Looking Ahead to 2019
In spite of the referendum's failure, opposition forces that campaigned against it will remain hobbled for a number of reasons. Primarily, the opposition lacks cohesion and leadership. In the 2014 presidential election, for example, the strongest opposition contender, business leader Samuel Medina Doria, won less than 25 percent of the vote. Morales, meanwhile, secured more than 60 percent. Traditional Bolivian opposition figures such as Jorge Quiroga, who was president from 2001-2002, and exiled former Cochabamba governor Manfred Reyes Villa lack the popularity to coalesce support for a serious presidential run. Other key opposition figures face obstacles hampering a presidential run: Journalist Carlos Valverde, who uncovered the Morales corruption scandal, risks possible imprisonment after he sued the government over corruption charges; Santa Cruz Gov. Ruben Costas is strongly identified with the pro-autonomy movement for his economically important department; and La Paz Mayor Luis Revilla is relatively unknown outside the city. But ultimately, the opposition's biggest problem is that it does not represent the native population, which constitutes the majority of the country. The major opposition figures are mestizos, who will have a difficult time cultivating support among ethnic Aymara and Quechan populations.
