What's Going on in Spain?

It's not an urgent drama unfolding in Spain -- at least not one with enough theatrical immediacy to lead Continent-wide headlines amid the circus of crises daily parading before European eyes.

But while the process is slow in the quotidian, the weeks since Spain's election have confirmed that the country has left its former political landscape -- and neither its leaders nor its populace yet understand the nature of the ground on which they now stand. Spaniards in the post-Franco era had maintained decades of a bipolar political order, with the center-left Socialists, or PSOE, and the center-right Popular Party, or PP, alternating power in an arrangement that has overlain a veneer of stability on a country historically riven by dissembling forces.

That ended with Spain's election in December, as two insurgent parties, Podemos and Ciudadanos, joined the PSOE and PP at the top of voter preferences, with those four parties garnering between 13 percent and 28.7 percent of votes, and none of them having a clear path to government.

The drama is set to peak at the beginning of March, when deputies are supposed to vote on the investiture of the next prime minister. (Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez is currently trying to assemble a governing coalition.) This week, Europe Memo caught up with Sebastian Balfour, emeritus professor of contemporary Spanish studies at the London School of Economics, to check in on what's been going on with Spain -- and what it means for Europe at large.

RCW: What's remarkable right now is watching the two-level sparring match going on. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and PSOE leader Sanchez, the representatives of the mainstream parties, are struggling for supremacy, while at the same time trying to figure out how to deal with the increased influence of former political outsiders. Can PP and PSOE find a way to thread the needle and govern together?

Balfour: The elections of 20 December 2015 has spelt, for the time being, the end of the two-party system that dominated Spanish politics since the consolidation of its democracy. The central feature of this new landscape is the emergence of two new parties of the left and center-right, Podemos and Ciudadanos, which challenge the political culture of the established parties. In fact, it is the legitimacy of the political system which is under question after seven years of economic crisis, austerity, and unemployment, and the unravelling of the corruption and clientelism at its heart (in particular within the Popular Party). The contest turned out to be a four-horse race without a clear winner. The new parliamentary arithmetic represents a conundrum. On the basis of electoral programs and statements since the election, no party seems likely to be able to put together a coalition with an absolute majority of 176 seats and above, in a parliament of 350 seats, or even a minority government based on the abstention of other parties.

Following constitutional protocol, the King invited the PP, the party with the most votes, to attempt to form a government. Its leader Rajoy declined, presumably on the grounds that he had little chance of gaining support from other parties. The King then turned to the second most voted party, the PSOE, whose leader Sanchez is negotiating with other parties at this moment. Both PSOE and PP have categorically ruled out a joint coalition. But the numbers simply do not add up either for a left coalition of PSOE and Podemos or a center-left/center-right coalition of PSOE and Ciudadanos. A rainbow coalition of all three is unlikely given their radical policy differences. A key issue is the question of separatism. Podemos supports the right of Catalans and Basques to hold a referendum on independence, but neither PSOE nor Ciudadanos will countenance this policy, with the result that the regional nationalist vote has been sidelined, making the achievement of a majority coalition even more problematic. For its part, Ciudadanos is unlikely to want to be tainted by supporting a new, unreformed government of the PP.

RCW: What is Sanchez's clearest path toward a coalition? Is there one? Under what circumstances might PSOE open to Podemos? To the separatist parties?

Balfour: There is no clear path. It is more of a labyrinth. All bets are off. There might even be radical internal changes of personnel within the two main parties. Within the PP in particular, in an effort to present a new face. Sanchez has so far weathered dissensions within his party, but they continue to lurk. The least unlikely outcome is a minority government of PSOE and Ciudadanos with the abstention of either PP or Podemos after policy concessions made to one or the other, none of which are likely to involve the right of self-determination.

RCW: Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias is now demanding a key Cabinet post as part of any deal to join a coalition, which is an interesting change. What, to you, explains that aggressive stance, seeing as he'd previously insisted he would stay out of such a post?

Balfour: All four parties are keen to demonstrate statesmanship, a willingness to solve the conundrum (after Rajoy's initial passivity). Podemos' stance is probably driven by tactical considerations rather than any confidence Iglesias' offer will be accepted. Podemos' participation in a coalition government is likely to undermine its legitimacy over the long run.

RCW: How long is this going to take to shake out? What are the chances we're gonna see another round of elections? And if we do, what is your feel for how those will play out? Who wins, who loses?

Balfour: If PSOE is unable to cobble together a government, the King could continue to ask other parties to try. It is possible that the PP will accept another invitation to form a government. It would probably suit parties such as the PP and Podemos to have a new round of elections -- but not the PSOE, which would lose support. This is what the polls are suggesting. However, they are also suggesting that the results of new elections won't be substantially different from those of December 20, and that the same painful and uncertain process of bargaining would begin anew.

RCW: Are PP, PSOE, approaching a similar decline to the mainstream parties in Greece?

Balfour: I believe the decline of the PP and the PSOE is part of a much wider process of delegitimization of established parties throughout Europe. The difficulties faced by both conservative and social-democrat governments in dealing with the economic and social problems arising from the 2007-2008 crisis have encouraged the emergence or resurgence of parties of the populist left, but above all the populist right, in opposition to the dominant neoliberal orthodoxy. The difference in Spain is that PP controls the right, while Podemos is able to channel social and political grievances into a new and effective challenge to the status quo.

Read more on this:

New Players, Old Tensions Reconfigure Spain's Politics - Omar Encarnacion, World Politics Review

Spain's Own Game of Thrones - Miguel-Anxo Murado, Guardian

Europe's Political Center Cannot Hold - Geoffrey Wheatcroft, National Interest

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