Of course, Russia has not been the only country to suffer economically as a result of the crisis. Ukraine's gross domestic product contracted by 10 percent in 2015. European countries such as Germany and Italy have struggled under Russia's countersanctions against the European Union as well. Every party would benefit significantly if restrictions were lifted. If economic conditions instead become worse, the sheer economic pain could drive them to break their political impasse over the conflict in Ukraine's east.
Another component that could drive negotiations is the ongoing conflict in Syria. Russia has become involved in Syria on the side of President Bashar al Assad's government, conflicting with U.S. and European support for certain rebel factions. But both Moscow and the West share a common enemy in Syria: the Islamic State. There is also the potential for more general bargaining. Russia could exact concessions from the United States on NATO's buildup in Russia's periphery, just as the United States could get Russia to cooperate in negotiations over the political future of Syria. Both sides are still working on opposite ends of the fight, but their shared interest in containing the security threat of the Islamic State, which has struck both Europe and Russia, presents an opportunity for cooperation on other issues.
Continued Constraints
However, Moscow is unlikely to completely surrender on Ukraine. The Kremlin traditionally prioritizes Russia's national security interests over its economic development. Russian President Vladimir Putin is well aware of the consequences of former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev's geopolitical concessions to the West in exchange for economic support, which contributed to the Soviet Union's collapse. Putin is also aware that giving away major concessions on Ukraine without anything to show for them could be more disastrous for his political position than the economic pain that Russia has had to endure. After all, his popularity among the Russian public remains quite high despite the economic crisis - at least for now.
Ukraine will not unilaterally concede in a substantial way either. The austerity measures the staunchly pro-West government in Kiev has pursued to gain financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund have made the Ukrainian government extremely unpopular. The government has also stalled reforms in the judicial and legal sectors, hurting the ruling coalition led by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Yatsenyuk's People's Front party has polled so low in recent months that it did not even participate in local elections, and there are indications that a government shake-up in Ukraine - potentially costing Yatsenyuk his position - may take place in the coming weeks.
Nationalist and far-right groups such as Right Sector and the Svoboda party are also confronting Kiev, calling for a more aggressive stance against the separatists in eastern Ukraine. Though these groups have fought alongside the Ukrainian military in the east, they have clashed with Ukrainian security forces in other areas of the country as well, remaining outside Kiev's direct control. Granting greater concessions to Russia and the separatists would likely instigate a conflict with far-right groups. With the government already weak, such a conflict could be the tipping point for Kiev, perhaps explaining why the Ukrainian government has remained adamantly opposed to political concessions to Russia until Moscow implements its end of the Minsk agreement.
And while EU countries such as Germany, France and Italy have a clear economic interest in lifting sanctions against Russia, other European states such as Poland and the Baltic countries want to maintain sanctions until Moscow fulfills its Minsk agreement obligations. The United States has even less incentive to compromise on sanctions, since Russia's economic and political position has weakened and, from Washington's perspective, Moscow still has not given enough ground in eastern Ukraine to justify lifting sanctions.
What Can Be Achieved
So what areas in the Ukraine conflict can realistically expect renewed negotiations?
