realclearworld Newsletters: Mideast Memo
Today, the United Arab Emirates -- a federation of seven regions each ruled by their own hereditary monarch, and presided over by a national council comprised of the seven rulers -- celebrates National Day, a holiday marking the Gulf state's independence and the end of British stewardship of the former Trucial States.
The UAE marked its 44th National Day in predictable style, as celebrants in Dubai, for example, were treated to a sensory onslaught featuring "neon-lit flyboarders dancing in the sky, powered by unmanned jet-skis."
While the country celebrates yet another year of independence, its government has in the past year taken a more aggressive stance in the region, largely in reaction to the instability that followed the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. The UAE has been an active participant in U.S.-led airstrikes against the Islamic State group, and it has been a key contributor to Gulf ally Saudi Arabia's controversial campaign against Iran-aligned Shiite rebels in Yemen.
Iin spite of its announcement this week that it intends to send ground troops to Syria to join the fight against ISIS, the bulk of the Emirates' time and attention has clearly been directed toward the war in Yemen, which has quickly developed into the deadliest conflict in the country's short history.
However, the very same diversity and cosmopolitanism being celebrated today -- expatriates in fact outnumber Emirati nationals throughout most of the country -- is also what hinders the UAE's ability to engage in military operations around the region, forcing it to fill its military gaps with mercenaries from countries as far away as Colombia. Emily Hager and Mark Mazzetti of the New York Times have more:
"The United Arab Emirates has secretly dispatched hundreds of Colombian mercenaries to Yemen to fight in that country's raging conflict, adding a volatile new element in a complex proxy war that has drawn in the United States and Iran.
"It is the first combat deployment for a foreign army that the Emirates has quietly built in the desert over the past five years, according to several people currently or formerly involved with the project. The program was once managed by a private company connected to Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater Worldwide, but the people involved in the effort said that his role ended several years ago and that it has since been run by the Emirati military.
[...]
"The Colombian troops now in Yemen, handpicked from a brigade of some 1,800 Latin American soldiers training at an Emirati military base, were woken up in the middle of the night for their deployment to Yemen last month. They were ushered out of their barracks as their bunkmates continued sleeping, and were later issued dog tags and ranks in the Emirati military. Those left behind are now being trained to use grenade launchers and armored vehicles that Emirati troops are currently using in Yemen."
The Emirates reportedly prize the Colombian forces for their years of experience in guerilla warfare against the insurgent Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and well-paid security jobs in the Gulf have become an appealing alternative for Colombian military veterans.
Its increased military involvement in the region represents, in many ways, a preventive measure intended to fend off the kind of uprisings and unrest that have toppled and challenged other Arab regimes in recent years. The country has, along with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf regimes, spent billions to keep Egypt's autocratic government afloat, and it has embraced Russia's broad-stroke approach toward Islamist rebel forces currently fighting in Syria.
Obama's Arab Allies Focus Attention Elsewhere -- Washington Times
Large Expat Population in UAE Expected to Grow -- Gulf News
The UAE's Wider Ambitions -- The Guardian
Yemen's African Connection -- Al-Monitor
Around the Region
Could Iran live without Assad? The American Enterprise Institute's J. Matthew McInnis wonders:
"[W]hat if Moscow forced Tehran to accept Assad's departure as part of a negotiated settlement? This is frankly a terrifying prospect for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders who manage the Syria portfolio.
"Tehran would need a candidate acceptable to a number of key constituencies within the Syrian regime, including the army, the intelligence services, the minorities at the core of the Syrian state, and the remaining Sunni community that still back the president. At present, Assad is arguably the only candidate suitable for all these constituencies. Any other compromise candidate is unlikely to be able to unify diverse constituencies and avoid paralyzing infighting."
Mideast machismo. The Brookings Institution's Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro implore the United States to help ease tensions between Ankara and Moscow following the Nov. 24 downing of a Russian warplane by Turkey:
"Cooler heads should put a stop to this escalatory spiral now. The United States should take immediate efforts not only to stop further conflict between Ankara and Moscow, but also to forge significantly greater cooperation between Russia and the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition. In so doing, Washington can both prevent incidents such as this one from recurring, and more effectively address the Syrian civil war and the fight against extremists there.
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"Deepening engagement, however distasteful, with Russia on Syria must be seen as a necessary -- even if not sufficient -- step in bringing the nightmare there to an end; in preventing further terrorist attacks like those in Paris, Sinai, and Beirut; and in avoiding inadvertent escalation. It will not eliminate differences with Moscow, particularly on issues like Ukraine. But the other options available to the United States -- countering Russia on the battlefield or doing nothing while hoping that President ErdoÄ?an and President Putin can remain calm -- will almost certainly make the situation in Syria worse, and could well lead to a much bigger calamity."
Intrigue in Iran. Al-Monitor's Arash Karami reports that Tehran is abuzz with rumors over President Hassan Rouhani's repeated absence from meetings of one of the country's key governing bodies:
"Conservative Iranian media outlets have been buzzing with the news of President Hassan Rouhani's continued absence from the country's Expediency Council meetings, which is chaired by his political mentor, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
"According to Fars News, Rouhani clashed with the Expediency Council over the writing of the country's Sixth Development Plan, a five-year plan meant to address the needs and future goals of the country.
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"When asked if the president was intentionally avoiding the meetings, using a Persian term for 'sulking,' [Council member Mahmoud] Mohammadi Araghi said that this was his impression after hearing Rafsanjani's comments about the issue. As president, Rouhani is obligated to attend Expediency Council meetings."
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