Mahmoud Abbas' U.N. "Bombshell"

It's rare that a U.N. General Assembly session generates legitimate buzz or anticipation. This year's summit marks the body's 70th anniversary, and, true to form, has been full of the usual bromides, pledges, and bombastic ramblings by various world leaders.

Overshadowed this year by the Syrian refugee crisis and the tit for tat between the presidents of Russia and the United States, however, is the perpetually unanswered question of Palestine. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas set off a wave of speculation in recent days when it was reported that he intended to make a "bombshell" announcement during his scheduled remarks on Wednesday; the same day that a Palestinian flag is set to be raised at the United Nations.

Earlier reports indicated that Abbas, frustrated by Israeli inaction and Western indifference, would announce his government's withdrawal from parts of the Oslo Accords, thus cancelling security cooperation with the Israeli government. Analysts and insiders have dismissed this possibility, and the Times of Israel reported this week that a last-minute intervention by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry likely persuaded the longtime Palestinian leader to soften his tone.

"The top American diplomat made clear to Abbas that the Obama administration would not like to hear him voice overt threats toward Israel," reports the Times' Elhanan Miller.

Haaretz's Barak Ravid, however, reports that Abbas still intends to threaten the nullification of various agreements made with the Israeli government if Palestinian grievances are left unaddressed, and that he "planned to say he was ‘worn out' and to accuse Israel of having emptied the Oslo Accords and subsequent agreements of all content."

On Tuesday, Abbas penned an op-ed for the Huffington Post celebrating the raising of the Palestinian flag at the United Nations, a mostly symbolic move for a country, and a cause, that is in search of substantive progress. The Palestinian Authority is going broke and is plagued by infighting; more importantly, the Palestinians are struggling for relevance in a region beset by bigger crises and conflicts.

So desperate is Abbas to find a willing partner in the peace process, that he is now turning to a more assertive Russia for assistance. Analyst Adnan Abu Amer explains:

"It is noteworthy that Abbas' recent trip to Moscow was his third this year. He visited Russia in January and again in April to discuss bilateral relations, Russia's involvement in negotiations with the Israelis and getting rid of U.S. sponsorship of the negotiations. These visits inspire Palestinians to believe Russia will support them in the face of Israeli stubbornness."

There is a paradox within the current Palestinian movement. While the PA has successfully managed to create a relative amount of security and prosperity in the West Bank, Abbas' own standing among Palestinians has declined, and the appetite for a two-state solution has diminished.

Abbas presides over a relic of a roadmap that leads to nowhere. Whether or not his speech at the United Nations today will change that remains to be seen, but don't bet on it.

Around the Region

The Russian peace process? It would appear, however, that someone is listening to the Palestinians' pleas. Associated Press and AFP report that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will lead a Security Council session later today to address, among other items, the stagnant Mideast peace process:

"The so-called Quartet of Mideast mediators -- the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, and Russia -- are expected to meet alone first and then with key Mideast nations to discuss reviving long-stalled peace negotiations as part of the meeting Wednesday.

"The meeting is expected to focus mostly on fighting terrorism, reinforcing a theme dominating much of this week's gathering of world leaders at the United Nations."

Moscow's Mideast moment. Regional expert Vali Nasr argues that Russia is the only nation now in a position to bring peace to war-torn Syria:

"Secretary Kerry is renewing his bid for a diplomatic solution to Syria, but it is Russia, not the United States, that is shaping the situation on the ground to compel diplomacy. In the four years of civil war, the United States has rebuffed calls to arm the rebels, establish a no fly zone or enforce its own red lines for use of chemical weapons. America's impact on the civil war has been minimal. Russia, by contrast, has armed Assad's military and now taken charge of defending the regime. It is clear to all stakeholders that the key to the resolution of the war is Moscow."

Congress iffy on intel. Al-Monitor's Julian Pecquet reports that the U.S. Congress is looking for ways to develop a better, more inclusive strategy in its war against the Islamic State group. The body just isn't sure, however, if that list should include Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar Assad:

"'I will say the one thing we have in common with the Russians is our dislike for the terrorists,' committee chairman Mike McCaul, R-Texas, told Al-Monitor. ‘The complication is their obvious support for [Bashar al-] Assad. And as long as Assad remains in power, he remains a magnet for the jihadists.'"

The Iraqi government agreed this week to share its intelligence information on ISIS with Russia, Syria, and Iran.

The war after ISIS. The National's Florian Neuhof reports from the Iraqi town of Jalawla, where another battle is brewing in the absence of the so-called Islamic State:

"Jalawla, shot up and deserted after months of bloody fighting to expel the extremist group, remains empty after the town was finally retaken by Kurdish fighters and Shiite militias last November.

"The Kurds and the Shiite units have proven ISIL's most effective opponents, blunting its surge across Iraq last year after the army collapsed under its onslaught. But in Jalawla, the differences between the reluctant brothers in arms could not be papered over, and tensions quickly escalated when the common enemy had been expelled."

[...]

"If the cash-strapped central government does not have the funds or the will to infuse Peshmerga-held Jalawla with new life, it will not appreciate Kurdish efforts to draw the town into its orbit either. At present, pro-government forces are tied up in the bitter struggle with ISIL in Anbar province, but once the threat from west has been eliminated, Baghdad's attention will invariably shift to the north."

Read the rest of this important story here.

Cameron: No deal. British Prime Minister David Cameron reiterated his government's position on Syrian President Bashar Assad on Tuesday, insisting that Britain views ISIS and the Syrian strongman as a package deal.

"We need a transition, but at the end of that Assad can't be the head of Syria," said Cameron in an interview with "CBS This Morning."

Cameron met this week with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to discuss cooperation between their two governments on ISIS. The British embassy in Tehran reopened last month after being closed for nearly four years, following an assault on the compound in November 2011.

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