Why ISIS Keeps Growing

Good morning, Memo readers. The New York Times reported this weekend that while the Islamic State group is no longer gaining territory, Western efforts to degrade the group have thus far fallen short. Eric Schmitt and Somini Sengupta have the report:

"Despite Pentagon reports that coalition strikes have killed about 10,000 Islamic State fighters, the group continues to replenish its ranks, drawing an average of about 1,000 fighters a month. The government several months ago last publicly assessed the flow at ‘more than 25,000,' including at least 4,500 from the West. Given the region's porous borders, American officials emphasize that their figures are rough estimates not precise head counts, based on allies' reports on citizens' travel and other intelligence, which vary by country."

Much of the Islamic State's appeal stems from its apocalyptic recruiting pitch, which extols the spiritual merits of a zero-sum clash of civilizations between its self-styled caliphate and the imperialists and apostates of the outside world. This attritional appeal, as Will McCants of the Brookings Institution reminds us, has proven rather successful throughout the course of history:

"We forget that this terrifying approach to state building has an impressive track record. The pagan Mongols used it to great effect in the thirteenth century to conquer land stretching from the Pacific to the Mediterranean. They were far more brutal than the Islamic State, massacring entire towns that refused to surrender in order to discourage anyone else from resisting."

And today's modern-day Mongols will no doubt use the news that the Syrian government is now equipped with Russian warplanes -- in addition to its already extensive support from Shiite Iran -- as fodder for luring more would-be warriors to the front.

Moscow, by its own admission, knows that thousands of Russians, primarily from the North Caucasus, have joined ISIS. One recent report by a Russian newspaper even suggested that the FSB, Russia's state security service, has "controlled" the flow of its own jihadists into places like Syria and Iraq.

"It may sound paradoxical -- helping the enemy of your friend -- but the logic is actually straightforward," writes Michael Weiss of The Daily Beast. "Better the terrorists go abroad and fight in Syria than blow things up in Russia."

Whether it be indifference or subterfuge, Russia's escalated military presence in Syria will only serve as a calcifying force in a conflict full of true believers. Moreover, as additional external actors enter the war in order to assert their own influence, the Islamic State will have more opportunities to propagandize disgruntled jihadists abroad. This, argues John McLaughlin, former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency, requires a compelling counter-narrative on the part of the West.

"The coalition should flood social media with the honest testimony of those who've returned or escaped [the Islamic State], disillusioned and bitter," McLaughlin told the Memo. "They are the only ones who might have some credibility with the population vulnerable to the ISIS narrative -- largely young people who feel they do not ‘belong' where they now live."

Another challenge will be to keep those youths exactly where they are, and away from the battlefields of Syria and Iraq. This, however, will require better coordination between the unlikely ensemble now fighting ISIS, in addition to, adds McLaughlin, a resolution in Syria and Iraq that addresses the legitimate grievances of the Sunni heartland.

"A way must be found to meet the concerns of Sunnis [in Iraq and Syria], whose grievances and abuse are the foundation of the Islamic State's appeal," said McLaughlin. "In Syria, this means transitioning to a more pluralistic government in place of Assad's Alawite-dominated regime -- and in Iraq, reforms giving Sunnis a meaningful role in government."

Around the Region

Banking on terror. Another important tool in the counterterror toolbox is the ability to interrupt the funding of jihadist organizations in the Middle East. And while Western governments have had more than a decade of practice, governments in the Middle East still struggle to prevent the flow of small donations to terrorists. Part of the problem, reports Jean Aziz, is the informal banking economy across the region:

"It is absolutely necessary and urgent to bring in the majority of people's funds to the formal banking sector in the [Middle East and North Africa] region. To achieve this, financial authorities have had to set up several different methods of exchanging information, accommodating each country and its situation."

One area in need of greater regulation, Aziz goes on to explain, is the transfer of remittances to the Mideast:

"The International Monetary Fund estimates the value of 2013-14 global remittances at $583 billion, with $440 billion of that amount -- more than 75 percent -- transferred to developing countries. This is understandable due to the movement of migrant workers from developing countries toward the West and their remittances to their countries of origin."

Temple Mount, then and now. Fifteen years after the late Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon paid his now infamous visit to the Temple Mount -- an act widely believed to have contributed to the start of the Second Intifada -- tensions appear to be boiling over once again at the divisive Jerusalem religious site. Haaretz's Nir Hasson has the story:

"Violence has been an almost daily occurrence on the Temple Mount in recent weeks, as Israel marks its High Holiday season, with Muslims maintaining that Israel is attempting to alter the status quo at the sites holy to Islam.
"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected those claims last Thursday, saying ‘We are not the ones to change the status quo. Those who take pipe bombs to mosques are the ones changing the status quo.'

"The compound is sacred to Jews and known as the Temple Mount, site of the two biblical Jewish temples. Muslims revere it as the Noble Sanctuary where they believe the Prophet Muhammad ascended to heaven."

Hajj fallout. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani took aim at the Saudi government in an interview with Western journalists at this week's U.N. General Assembly. The Iranian government has not held back in recent days in its criticism of Riyadh's handling of last week's deadly stampede in the city of Mina, which resulted in the deaths of several hundred Hajj pilgrims, including scores of Iranian citizens.

"Rouhani suggested that the preoccupation of the Saudi military with Yemen might have left the kingdom short of experienced manpower to manage the annual pilgrimage known as the hajj," reports Barbara Slavin of Al-Monitor.

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