Q5: What are the implications of China's actions for the United States and other regional players?
From the U.S. perspective, the ADIZ announcement is likely to be seen as part of a deliberate strategy to bolster Beijing's sovereignty claims, adding to Chinese air and maritime probing in the East China Sea and now the surrounding air space. The United States will seek to encourage the peaceful rise of China while demonstrating consistency in U.S. declaratory policy on the islands. Close coordination and defense cooperation with Japan, the ROK, and other regional partners and a clear strategy for sustaining U.S. forward presence are all essential elements in dissuading Beijing from further pursuing an escalatory strategy that could undermine regional security.
Leaders in the United States and Japan are likely to view these escalatory measures as a test of Japan's resolve and of the vitality of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Chinese aggression, however, is likely to bolster domestic and regional support for Prime Minister Abe's national security agenda and reinforce efforts to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance and increase bilateral jointness and interoperability. Support for Japanese views may grow in Southeast Asia as states bordering the South China Sea worry about a similar Chinese move to place a South China Sea ADIZ over their disputed islands.
The negative reactions in the ROK come as a surprise to many given the growing positive relations between China and the ROK since President Park Geun-hye's inauguration in February of this year. Just last week State Councilor Yang Jiechi of China paid a well-received three-day visit to Seoul, where he met with President Park and a host of high-ranking ROK officials, including National Security Office head Kim Jang-soo and Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, to discuss progress made in the ROK-China Strategic Cooperation Partnership announced by Park and Xi in June. Vice Defense Minister Baek Seung-joo of the ROK is scheduled to meet with Wang Guangzhong, the deputy of the PLA in Seoul on November 28. That previously scheduled meeting will be an early indication of how much damage Beijing has done in its relations with Seoul.
Vice President Joe Biden will be visiting Japan, Korea, and China next week, and the ADIZ issue will be at the top of his agenda. It will be important for the United States to coordinate responses with allies and partners in the region to ensure that Beijing recognizes unilateral escalation is counter to Chinese interests.
