For most Americans, conflicting claims by Asian countries to small islands in the South China and East China Seas are a sideshow that distract from more serious national security issues in Syria, Afghanistan, North Korea and elsewhere. But recent events demonstrate that the United States ignores these island disputes at its peril.
On May 9, a Philippine coast guard vessel sprayed with gunfire a Taiwanese fishing boat that was allegedly fishing illegally in the Philippines' "exclusive economic zone." In a case of what Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou called "cold blooded murder," Filipino forces fatally shot a 65-year-old fisherman in the back.
The fallout between the two countries has been considerable. Philippine President Benigno Aquino III rejected the murder allegation but gave a "personal" apology for the incident which he called "unintentional." Taiwan rejected the apology and accused the Philippines of a "lack of sincerity and credibility" in cooperating with its investigation. In the meantime, Taiwan sent navy ships to the area to protect its fishermen.
The official U.S. response has been minimal at best, with a State Department spokesman declaring the United States is "hopeful [the Philippines] will move forward" to investigate while the American ambassador to the Philippines said "we know these things will be resolved through negotiations....We're glad that they're going to work these things out as democracies do."
The real question is whether the U.S. can afford the luxury of effectively distancing itself from either this conflict between two U.S. allies or the even more contentious dispute between China and Japan over the uninhabitable Senkaku/Diaoyu islands near Taiwan.
What if the dead fisherman was a PRC national killed "accidentally" and "unintentionally" by Japanese naval forces? Or what if PRC maritime patrol boats in the East China Sea had shot dead a member of the Japanese coast guard? Even worse, what if a deadly clash occurred between the F-15 fighters Japan sometimes scrambles near the islands and a Chinese maritime aircraft patrolling the area it regards as Chinese territory?
In the case of the East China Sea, the U.S. has become hostage to the hardline policy of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has used the island conflict to pander to nationalist feelings and bolster his domestic political standing.
In the event of a confrontation with Chinese patrol boats or aircraft, Abe has made it clear Japan will respond aggressively, shooting first and asking questions later, to defend Japan's territorial claims. That would draw in U.S. military forces to support Japan, based on the Obama administration's current interpretation of American obligations under the US-Japan defense treaty -- even though the U.S. does not recognize either Japanese or Chinese sovereignty over the islands.
