The reported presence of thousands of Hezbollah fighters and Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria to protect President Assad and his regime means Iran has made a strategic commitment not to lose Syria. That in turn means Syria will not follow the example of Libya.
Backed by Iran and Russia, Hezbollah will not allow Assad to be deposed, hunted down and assassinated, nor will it allow a massacre of Alawites and supporters of Assad. This emphasizes the importance of Hezbollah in Syria and the role it will likely play in any future settlement and government.
There will be no NATO/US military action in Syria, as there was in Libya.
But, as the US and Europeans support the Syrian rebels diplomatically and supply them with arms, Hezbollah's presence in Syria is a game changer that should prompt policy rethinking.
With Hezbollah fighting alongside the Alawites, it will be impossible for the rebels to defeat Assad, and sooner or later the rebels will understand that they must make a deal which will allow for power-sharing and the protection of Alawites and other minorities. The Kurds, who have created a virtually autonomous region, will likely follow the path of the Iraqi Kurds toward quasiindependence.
Hezbollah is the critical element in such a deal - which would not only end the civil war, but ensure Hezbollah's place in Syria - similar to its role in Lebanon.
As part of a new Syrian government, Hezbollah will be protected and legitimized.
Backed by the EU, it will enjoy international support despite its involvement in terrorist attacks around the world, drug trafficking, counterfeiting and other criminal activity. With a significant presence in Syria and Lebanon, the US will probably reconsider its relationship with Hezbollah.
Fragmented among various factions, a new Islamist/Sunni-backed Syrian government will be weak and no match for the more disciplined, organized and well-funded Hezbollah. Backed by "democratic" elections, Hezbollah will gain legitimacy and a political role which will give them a chair at the diplomatic table.
A renewed Syrian-Lebanese axis under Hezbollah will provide Iran with a huge land base from which to extend its influence in the region and lead the fight for every inch of what many in the international community consider "occupied Syrian territory" - the Golan Heights.
A new, radical Islamist Syrian government will focus on a return of the Golan to Syria as a way of building national cohesion. Their efforts will be primarily diplomatic and media-oriented, intended to further isolate and condemn Israel.
