When the Arab Rising began in December 2010, leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran were quick to claim credit, declaring their 1979 revolution as its "religious and ideological progenitor."
Iran's ayatollahs proposed that fundamentalist Islamic theology should direct change from Morocco to Yemen. Iranian Shiite ayatollahs hoped Sunni Muslims across the Middle East would install governments similar to their own system of velayat-e faqih, or governance by a supreme religious jurist.
Fundamentalist Iranian ambitions remain only partially fulfilled. But the ayatollahs are patient, firm in their belief that Sunni Islamists in Arab lands will eventually make common cause with the Shiite revolutionaries of Iran.
Iran nurtured ties with Tunisia's Islamic Renaissance Movement since 1988 when its leaders were exiled to Europe. Muslim Brotherhoods in Egypt and Libya, in addition to the Islamic Action Front in Jordan, received clandestine Iranian support for decades. Bahrain's politically-disenfranchised Shiite majority views Iran as its religious mainstay, as do Shiite minorities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Shiite Houthi rebels along the porous border between Yemen and Saudi Arabia look to Tehran for support.
Yet, when regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen fell, citizens did not seem eager to replace autocratic leaders with intolerant Muslim clerics. Indeed opinion polls demonstrate the ayatollahs' esteem has fallen since Arabs witnessed images of Tehran's hypocritical leaders unleashing violence against their own citizens in 2009.
So, as the Arab Rising unfolds, some Sunni Islamist groups have begun to portray themselves as moderates who would accommodate democracy. But they also have been careful not to actually renounce their officially-declared fundamentalist stances.
Just before Tunisians went to the polls in October to elect a constituent assembly for drafting a new constitution and appointing a government, the Islamic Renaissance Movement projected Turkey, not Iran, as an ideal political model. It was the largest winner in that election, garnering 89 out of 217 electoral seats, and will head a coalition government.
During Morocco's November elections, the Justice and Development Party focused on efficient, transparent governance rather than pushing strict Muslim codes. That Islamist group emerged as the largest parliamentary block with 107 out of 395 seats, and will lead a coalition government that reports to King Mohammed VI.
In Egypt's elections which are being conducted in stages until March 2012, first round results gave the Muslim Brotherhood 48 percent of the seats. Salafis - who advocate strict socio-political rules similar to the ayatollahs - took another 20 percent. The Muslim Brotherhood is expected to fare well in the subsequent stages and form Egypt's new government.
Moroccan Justice and Development Party's leader Abdel Ilah Bin Kiran stated, "Religion belongs in the mosques; we are not going to interfere in people's personal lives." Essam el-Erian, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, noted, "Millions of Egyptians voted because they want a strong, democratic Parliament."
Yet their words may not reflect how Sunni Islamists will govern once in power. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini spoke similar conciliatory words until his intolerant supporters gained control of Iran.
At the least, those three Arab nations will be governed by Islamists more sympathetic to Tehran's causes and less to Washington's - a major foreign policy shift.
