China's growing power and muscle-flexing vis-à-vis its neighbors have now resulted in a regional balancing effort. Earlier this month presidents of China's southern neighbors, Burma and Vietnam, made official visits to India - as much recognition of India's growing economic and political heft as acknowledgement that India is a good bet as they seek strategic balance in a region transformed by China's rapid ascent.
This is a time of great turmoil in the Asian strategic landscape, and India is trying to make itself relevant to the regional states. With its political and economic rise, Beijing has started dictating the boundaries of acceptable behavior to its neighbors, thereby laying bare the costs of great power politics. In July, an Indian warship on a friendly visit to Vietnam reported an unidentified Chinese radio warning when it was about 45 nautical miles off the Vietnamese coast. Tensions are rising between China and smaller states in East Asia and Southeast Asia over territorial issues. The US and its allies have already started reassessing their regional strategies, and a loose anti-China balancing coalition is emerging.
India's role becomes critical in such an evolving balance of power. As Singapore's elder-statesman Lee Kuan Yew has argued, he would like India to be "part of the Southeast Asia balance of forces" and "a counterweight [to China] in the Indian Ocean."
Other regional states, too, are keen on a more pro-active Indian role in the region. And the visits of Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang and Burmese President Thein Sein to India should be viewed in this broader context. Both Vietnam and Burma have hit a rough patch in their ties with China. China has sparred with regional states including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, asserting its "indisputable sovereignty" over the South China Sea. Some like the Philippines and Vietnam have pushed back. Philippines President Benigno Aquino Jr. told his nation: "We do not wish to increase tensions with anyone, but we must let the world know that we are ready to protect what is ours." Ever mindful of not provoking China, Vietnam has sent its top party leader to China and the president to India, but has made it clear that it wants the US and India to counterbalance Chinese power.
In September, when Beijing told New Delhi that its permission was needed for India's state-owned oil and gas firm to explore energy on two Vietnamese blocks in the South China Sea, Vietnam quickly cited the 1982 United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea to claim that blocks 127 and 128 were in Vietnamese territorial waters. New Delhi supported Hanoi's claims and has made it clear that its state-owned firm would continue to explore in the South China Sea. This rare display of spine has helped India strengthen its profile in the region and its relationship with Vietnam in particular.
The two nations also have high stakes in ensuring sea-lane security in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Given that Vietnam and India use similar Russian and erstwhile Soviet weapons systems - from submarines to jet fighters - Hanoi has been seeking collaboration with New Delhi on defense. Talks are ongoing for India to sell the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, developed by an Indo-Russian joint venture. Such collaboration could allow Vietnam to acquire military muscle and improve deterrence against China.
Naval cooperation between Vietnam and India remains the focus with Vietnam giving India the right to use its port in the south, Nha Trang, situated close to the strategically significant Cam Ranh Bay. During Sang's visit to India, the two sides reiterated the need to enhance cooperation in ensuring safety and security of the region's sea lanes and launched a security dialogue. To give strong economic foundation to the bilateral ties, it was also decided to increase the trade target to $7 billion by 2015 from the present $2.7 billion.
Burma too has made its own overtures to India. President Then Sein has pursued a range of reforms in the domestic realm that include opening substantive talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, declaration of amnesty for political prisoners and cancellation of the Chinese-funded Myitsone Dam project. These efforts could be viewed as an attempt to seek a rapprochement with the democratic world, and that may be why for his first visit abroad as president of a nominal civilian government, Thein Sein chose India.
During his visit, Then Sein sought greater Indian investment in Burma's energy sector even as the two nations agreed to expand cooperation in oil and gas exploration, open border trade, and speed up construction of natural gas pipelines. India, which is investing in the Kaladan multimodal transport system, connecting India's eastern seaboard to its northeastern states through Myanmar, further offered $500 million in credits for infrastructure projects.
