So the Pakistanis are now encouraging the Taliban to step up the war on NATO. They are convinced the Americans and Europeans are going to give up in Afghanistan and sooner or later cut and run. The ISI closely monitors the media on both sides of the Atlantic and reads polls that show support for the war is dwindling. They see Obama's decision to draw down US surge forces faster than Mullen and other generals wanted as a sign American resolve is collapsing. They remember well that the US walked away from Afghanistan and Pakistan after defeating the Russians and are convinced it will happen again.
Now Pakistan wants to accelerate American departure. By spectacular attacks like the one on the embassy, the ISI hopes to convince Americans that the war is hopeless and that defeat is inevitable therefore give up now rather than later. If the TV talking heads say the war is unwinnable, America will quit.
For the generals, the American presence in Afghanistan has brought nothing but trouble. They blame the American war across the border for creating Pakistan's militancy by pushing insurgents across the Durand line. They are humiliated by the drone strikes on jihadist targets in Pakistan's tribal border zone; they were especially humiliated by the SEAL commando raid in May that killed Osama bin Laden just one mile from Pakistan's top military academy in Abbotabad. The best solution for this trouble is an American defeat and withdrawal.
Some had hoped that Pakistan would at least facilitate talks between the Kabul government and the Taliban insurgency to provide a face-saving way to end the war. But the assassination of former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani on September 20th has dashed any hopes of a negotiated agreement. Rabbani, long an enemy of the ISI, was charged by President Hamid Karzai with leading talks with the Taliban, but was murdered when a suicide bomber sent by the Quetta Shura on a fake peace mission blew himself up as he embraced Rabbani. Given the close connection between the Quetta leadership and the ISI, it is hard to believe the ISI did not have knowledge of the plot.
What the generals want is a puppet regime in Kabul or at least in most of southern and eastern Afghanistan, and the Taliban is the only instrument for achieving that. A revived Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is the best insurance against a pro-India regime on the western border encouraging Pashtun and Baluchi separatism.
The military is a state within a state in Pakistan. The civilians, including President Asif Ali Zardari, live in fear of the ISI known for killing journalists and other enemies. The generals are not worried that America will cut off military aid; they calculate their Chinese and Saudi allies will give them what they need. China provides the nuclear reactors that fuel the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world. The Saudis have given more aid to Pakistan than to any other country.
And the military knows it controls the vital NATO supply line from Karachi to Kabul used to ship more half of the allies' supplies into the country. Foreign Minister Khar was only partly bluffing when she said the US needs Pakistan more than it needs the US.
Admiral Mullen rightly has argued that despite all the frustration with Pakistan, despite the fact that they are helping to kill American soldiers, the US has no viable choice but to engage with the world's second largest Muslim country and the sixth largest nation in the world. But the engagement is increasingly hostile; the US is now engaged in an undeclared air war in Pakistani territory. More SEAL missions are likely to protect American cities from bin Laden's successors. Pakistan is the most dangerous country in the world, and the deadly embrace between America and Pakistan becomes more deadly every day.
