Syria remains rocked by antiregime protests that have endured since March, and the country may be headed for civil war. That's because unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, sectarian rivalries are central to Syrian politics. That adds an element of danger to the situation-but also points the way toward how dictator Bashar al-Assad may fall, especially if the West takes the proper initiative.
Syria's population is 74% Sunni Muslim. Yet the Assad regime is Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam- - often considered heretical by orthodox Sunnis - that comprises only 10% or 15% of Syrians. The best-armed and best-trained divisions of the Syrian army are Alawite.
As President Assad has cracked down on protesters with violent force, killing roughly 2,000, Washington's reaction has been slow and unsteady. On May 19, President Obama called for a "serious dialogue" between the regime and the protesters in a speech at the State Department. Yet on July 31, he said "the courageous Syrian people who have demonstrated in the streets will determine its future." Which is it? U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford's July visit to the city of Hama - where he was received by the crowds with bouquets of flowers - is a reminder that U.S. actions remain critically important to any chance of a less violent outcome.
There appears to be no U.S. strategy except prayers that Syria doesn't turn into Libya: a full-fledged civil war. With the NATO military action in Libya now a source of contention both in the U.S. and among NATO allies, the last thing the White House likely wants is increased violence in Syria. Washington's inaction would then make it appear callous and inept-and could eventually lead to calls for a no-fly zone, arming the rebels, or even some form of military intervention.
American leadership can help avoid civil war. Our goal should be to separate the Assad family and its closest cronies from the rest of the Alawite community.
Across Alawite society there are varying degrees of loyalty to the Assads. There are close supporters who know their fate is tied to that of Assad, but there are many others who care little about the ruling family but are paralyzed by fear of vengeance against the entire community after President Assad is gone. The Alawite generals in the Syrian Army should be key targets for a campaign of psychological warfare urging them to salvage their community's post-Assad future by refusing now to kill their fellow citizens. The U.S. should address them publicly, but also reach out to them privately through whatever intelligence or military channels are available.
Here the Turkish government may be able to help, for they turned against Assad even before the U.S. did. The Turks were pursuing their own interests, seeking to displace Iran as the outside power most influential in Syria. But they also don't want to see a Syrian civil war that could, among other things, produce a massive refugee flow across their borders. Messages from Turkish officials to the Alawite military establishment can help persuade them not to sacrifice their future in a vain effort to save the Assad mafia. The message, and the tougher it is the better: "Make your choice now. Are you going to be war criminals or survivors?"
For this to work, the U.S. should stop speaking about "the regime" and speak instead about "the Assads." We should end the American equivocation and say clearly that Assad must and will go. The Alawites, and the generals in particular, won't think hard about their place in Syria's future until they are convinced Assad is finished.
