After a rare inter-Korean nuclear meeting in Bali, a top nuclear negotiator from North Korea arrived in the US to gauge if six-party talks can resume. China is host to talks that aim to dissuade the North's nuclear ambition. In fact, China's role has been highlighted as much as the North's provocations in international headlines.
Pundits have long viewed China as having the capacity to contain Pyongyang's belligerence. With rumors of another North Korean nuclear test making the rounds to engineer legitimacy of the young heir, the usual call to China to rein in its North Korean ally may not be far off.
How much influence China has over Pyongyang's policy remains, to quote Winston Churchill, "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma." Behind the mystery, there's a simple truth: China will do exactly what its long-term interest dictates and it will not be swayed by entreaties of any power.
Popular commentary on Sino-North Korean relations suggests that China wields decisive influence on North Korea. A longtime mantra of the US State Department holds that China is the key to North Korean belligerence. How much influence China has over North Korea is still debated among experts. Chinese influence will ultimately depend on Beijing's calculation of its national interests. That's the only certainty.
This bedrock principle often eludes outside commentators' scrutiny, and, as a result, Sino-North Korean relations often mystify international audiences.
China is seen as the major culprit that props the North Korean regime, functioning as its long-time enabler, providing food and fuel aid, neutralizing the UN sanctions. The international community has been perplexed by why China, a G20 member and "responsible stakeholder," is so obsessed with a blip on the world map.
However, the alarm that China doesn't do enough to contain North Korea's provocations is a manufactured reality with a strategic purpose - more a reflection of US policy frustration rather than an objective analysis of China's foreign-policy objectives, which should serve the national interests.
The Chinese national goal is to continue its rise as a global superpower. This requires a stable security environment in its neighborhood, especially the Korean Peninsula. Simply put, China wants to keep its backyard quiet. This offers a guide in decoding China's foreign-policy logic on North Korea.
For the foreseeable future, that means China will be status-quo oriented: It needs to be prodded before it acts, as in US-led campaigns to intercept illegal arms sales by North Korea, and will be unenthused to join an international initiative that attempts to radically change the status quo on the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, China will act proactively when perceiving signs of instability in North Korea - it invited North Korean leader Kim Jong Il three times in one year.
Four other pointers help in understanding China's foreign policy behavior on North Korea:
Firstly, China will act in a way that fosters the stability of the North regime. The duo recently embarked on joint economic projects on two border areas, river island Hwanggeumpyeong and the Rajin-Sonbong area. By providing North Korea with economic incentives, China wants to stabilize North Korea amid a volatile transition process from Kim Jong Il to his third and youngest son, still in his 20s.
