It was always going to be thus. Four months away from an election campaign the political debate has come down to economic management and taxes and the characters of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott. All else has proved a diversion in the daily news cycle.
At the end of budget week, Wayne Swan's projected return to budget surplus in 2012, and the Opposition Leader's implacable opposition to the government's $12 billion a year resource super profits tax are the leading points of the economic debate.
The Prime Minister's credibility and believability, and Abbott's lack of detail and risk are the character traits being raised.
Given the polling on Rudd's personal standing, Labor's support, popular opposition to the proposed resource super profits tax and an initially mixed reaction to the budget, it appears Abbott has maintained momentum and the government is still on the defensive after two weeks of tax and budget announcements.
Although Rudd has plummeted in the polls, Abbott is not convincing voters they should turn to him.
After securing a stunning turnaround in polling last December by attacking the emissions trading scheme as a "'great big new tax", the Liberal leader seems to be succeeding in his second campaign against "a great big new tax", the RSPT. That has become a proving ground for Rudd's leadership, which is under real pressure for the first time.
According to the Newspoll survey taken before the release of the Henry review and the Nielsen poll taken between the Henry review and the budget, the Coalition is in a winning position on two-party preferred terms for the first time since the 2007 election. Bob Hawke is apparently broken-hearted over Labor's position and has cast about within the Labor Party as to whether Julia Gillard could take over before the election.
The spectacular fall in Rudd's support caused enormous concern within the Labor Party, and the prospect of seat losses in Western Australia, Queensland and NSW created a grim vision of the budget forming a beachhead where the ALP could dig in to recover.
But the first poll taken after the budget has confirmed that the public has turned against the RSPT because of threats to jobs and security, and the attitude towards the budget itself is lukewarm, pollster Gary Morgan says. According to Morgan, his special survey taken after the budget "finds that although initially Australian electors were divided on the proposed mining super profits tax, the majority now disapprove of the proposal".
"Combined with the growing disapproval of the way Prime Minister Rudd is handling his job, this strong and growing disapproval of the proposed mining super profits tax which is critical to the budget projections will be a huge problem for Rudd as he seeks re-election," Morgan says.
"What should also concern the Rudd government is the electorate's lukewarm response to Wayne Swan's federal budget this week, with 6 per cent of electors describing the budget as average.
"Although 19 per cent considered the budget good, and only 11 per cent said it was a bad budget, this is much less favourable than the Howard government's last successful election year federal budget in May 2004."
That's what it has come down to: budget reaction, economic management and an almighty fight over the super profits tax where Abbott is backed by popular support and an intense campaign from the mining companies while Rudd has been warned he can't afford another about-face after dumping the ETS.
Rudd is in a three-way fight, with no clear way to win.
He's going to have to make changes to the RSPT, yet cannot afford to have any changes be seen as another backdown.
For all the long anticipation of a grand climate change election, a campaign consumed by a referendum on a federal takeover of the health system or early double-dissolution elections fought on an ETS or private health insurance, the election, expected to be held in October at the latest, has again come down to the economy and leadership.
This is not to say the triumphs of the Rudd government, such as the apology to the Stolen Generations, and spectacular failures such as the dangerously botched $2.45bn home roofing insulation, have not played a key part in shaping the political atmosphere.
Rather they will be woven into the fundamental challenges of managing the economy and character.
All of the government's chief set pieces - the economic stimulus after the global financial crisis, the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, the health reforms, the Henry tax review and the last budget of this term - have all been dealt with in the past six weeks. Running completely counter to an orthodox and organised election year timetable, the Rudd government has been dealing with crisis after crisis and releasing big policy initiatives in a frenetic rush to clear the decks before the election.
The Treasurer did well this week with the budget, being able to focus on a budget surplus of $1bn in 2012 - "in three years time, three years early" - and adopt the necessary rigour of a fiscal conservative.
But his ability to sell the budget to the public as that much-needed beachhead has been hampered by the Prime Minister's distraction over a belated passionate defence of the CPRS and hostility towards the mining tax.
The miners are furious they were not consulted and feel betrayed by the government and Treasury.
They accuse Rudd of deceiving the Australian people over the real effect of the tax and express concern and disbelief that there are sure signs the government is more concerned about the service industries in the slow lane of the two-speed economy than genuinely endangering mining projects.
The public also has given the lie to the government's claims that its fall in popularity is about the tough decision it made in imposing a tobacco excise tax and it will regain support through the mining tax. The opposite is true: the tobacco tax is popular and the mining tax is not.
As part of campaign to discredit the budget, Abbott and the Liberals are linking the Prime Minister's believeability with the projections of a paper-thin surplus in three years.
Opposition finance spokesman Andrew Robb told parliament: "Competence and performance is primarily a function of character, strength of character. Character is what you do when no one is watching. Character is when you reach inside your soul and follow your convictions.
"Sadly, under all the pressures of government, the Prime Minister and his government have failed so often on these tests of character and all Australians are paying the price. The Prime Minister and his government have not stayed true to commitments solemnly made.
"Promise after promise has been broken with gay abandon or the cynicism of crass politics."
For his part Rudd, has branded Abbott as weird and his budget response as frightening.
Stand by for more of the same all the way to the election.
