On May 9, the streets of Moscow will witness a rare and memorable spectacle. In a parade marking the 65th anniversary of Victory Day-the end of World War II, when Germany surrendered to Soviet commanders-10,500 servicemen will march through Moscow for this special celebration, accompanied by 150 military vehicles. Former allied troops (British, American, French, and Polish) will march alongside soldiers from former Soviet Union countries. The Russian authorities have promised this will be the biggest and most impressive military show in Moscow in the last 65 years-and they know a thing or two about military shows.
Yet the politics on display may well turn out to be even more remarkable. For the official stands will be shared by old, current, and future allies and enemies, in a panoramic picture of Europe spanning 65 years. Watching the parade will be the Russian leadership-first among them President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. They will be joined by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and a host of other European notables. The symbolism is, of course, deliberate: peaceful relations between Europe and Russia guarantee peace and stability on the continent. Yet it is also a reminder that the relationship is rooted to a significant degree in natural resources and hard power: Europe's dependency on Russian gas, matched by Russia's thirst for technology, furthered by potential sales of advanced military technology, and deepened by talks of a common security architecture.
Moreover, the notion of a "peace in Europe" works only if you firmly ban from your memory the wars and conflicts that took place since the end of the Cold War (from the Balkans to Chechnya to Georgia, to name only a few), and if you define Europe-as the Russians like to do-as contiguous with the territorial reach of the European Union. Even so, it's hard to ignore the fact that the arc between Northeastern Europe and the Southern Caucasus remains a highly combustible zone, as well as a wellspring for organized crime and illicit trade of all kinds, from people to drugs and weapons, and coming from as far away as the Middle East and Asia.
Also present in the stands will be leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)-the club of former members of the Soviet Union. They are meeting at an informal summit a day earlier, with foreign policy cooperation as one of the main issues on the agenda. What this cooperation could look like was exemplified only a short while ago by the recent shift in Ukraine foreign policy toward a more Moscow-friendly stance. Cooperation between Russia and what it used to call its "near abroad" could translate into progress and development for Russia's neighboring countries; but for now, it appears to mean control over their military alliances, stimulation of social divisions, prevalence of Russia's economic interests, and continuation of conflicts throughout the region.
Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Russia itself remain tied to a history and present that is marked by conflicts generated or catalyzed by the breaking up of the Soviet Union, and whose prolongation obstructs their economic and political development. Georgian troops, of course, will not be marching in the parade, and Georgian leaders will be nowhere close to the other VIPs. Their absence will remind onlookers of the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, which was in no small degree responsible for Russia's current surge of confidence, and two "solved" frozen conflicts (in Abkhazia and South Ossetia) by declaring them independent entities.
Only the absence of the Moldovan president Mihai Ghimpu will remind those who care to notice that this tiny country disapproves of Moscow's neighborhood policy and is seeking economic and political integration with the West. Perhaps next year's parade attendance roster may tell us whether it succeeded or not.
Former European enemies standing together to commemorate the end of one of the most terrible and bitter wars in human memory: that is indeed a reassuring sign of the continent's enduring commitment to peace. Yet there is another, more subtle message in the lineup: authoritarian countries claiming "spheres of influence" have not fostered security, development, and prosperity in the past. And they are not doing so now.
