Understanding Af-Pak: An Interview with Ahmed Rashid

Ahmed Rashid is a Pakistani journalist and an adjunct fellow at the Pacific Council on International Policy. His commentary has appeared in a number of international newspapers, and he is the author of several books on Pakistan and Central Asia. This list includes the New York Times bestseller Taliban, and most recently, Decent into Chaos: The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. 

RealClearWorld associate editor Gregory Scoblete interviewed Rashid in the aftermath of the Afghan elections.

RCW: What's your take away from the recent election in Afghanistan?

Rashid: It's depressing and will undermine an already precarious situation. There's no doubt there was large scale ballot stuffing and rigging and we could be facing a political and constitutional crisis. If [Afghan President Hamid] Karzai ultimately wins, the opposition is unlikely to accept it wholeheartedly. If he loses, there will be severe tension. It's not a good situation, especially at a time when the Taliban is stepping up their offensive.

RCW: Is the U.S. going down the wrong path, attempting to create a strong, centralized authority inside Afghanistan?

Rashid: No. We had elections in the past and they were successful. It was wrong to have this election when they did. The last two years should have been used to consolidate reconstruction in the country. The big tragedy was a failure by the Bush administration to carry out reconstruction measures in the spring of 2008; more troops, more money on the ground to train the Afghan army. One demand they received from their generals was postponing the [presidential] elections.

Also, handing over authority for the elections from the United Nations to the Afghans was a big mistake. In 2004, the international community had a big say, and those elections were successful. Today, the entire election commission was in the hands of the Karzai regime. The offensive against the Taliban in the south also took place too close to the elections. There was still a feeling of insecurity.

RCW: There's some rumbling afoot about dumping Karzai. Is such a thing practical or advisable?

Rashid: There's no winning solution here. If he wins [without a runoff], it's going to be tough to get the opposition to accept it. If he loses, it will be tough to have a run off under more secure circumstances. I think the best bet is to form a national government with Karzai and the opposition.

RCW: What do you think about the Obama administration's current strategy in Afghanistan?

Rashid: It's the best thing we've got at the moment. It's far more productive and incisive than anything that President Bush did. He's committing the resources. This whole plan needs time -- a minimum of two to three years. The question is: are the American people, Congress and the Democrats willing to give him that time? And I think they must. This impatience is misplaced and unfair. [Obama] was just elected. The administration must be given a chance to make their plan work.

Many Afghans I talk to see this as year one. They see the last eight years as time wasted.

RCW: Part of the administration's plan for Afghanistan hinges on the idea that were the Taliban to regain control of all, or at least some parts of the country, they would play host to al Qaeda again. Is this a legitimate fear? Are the Taliban and al Qaeda connected at the hip, as some have argued?

Rashid: I think there is a hardcore of [Taliban] leadership that is ideological and is also in favor of global jihad. You can't compromise with such people. You can't cut deals with them. But I think there are large elements in the rank and file that are fighting for a variety of reasons that aren't political -- money, revenge or local power. I think these people could be won over. You don't woo the whole Taliban movement, but fracture them.

RCW: Pakistan is often cited as the principle reason the U.S. is in Afghanistan. Yet aren't they supporting the Taliban, or at least parts of it?

Rashid: Pakistan has continued to back the Afghan Taliban. They remain an appendage of Pakistan. Now, I think this has been extremely dangerous for Pakistan. But it remains the fact that now, finally, after eight years, they're going after the Pakistani Taliban [but] the Afghan Taliban have been left alone. It's frustrating for the Afghans and the Western alliance. And Karzai, to his credit, pointed this out to Bush, and Bush chose to ignore him and keep backing [former Pakistani President Pervez] Musharraf.

There has to be much more determination on Pakistan's part. Right now, it's a very selective determination. They go after one lot and not after another lot.