A New Beginning on the Korean Peninsula
SEOUL - North Korea analysts here in Seoul started predicting over how inter-Korean relations would develop as the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak decided to meet with the North Korean delegation that had arrived in Seoul on August 21 to pay tribute to the former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung. The late Kim was the first South Korean President who had met with his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-il in 2000, despite much controversy among the people.
Given the conservative President Lee's latest address on the August 15 Liberation Day that "My Administration is ready to start talks and cooperation with the North over all issues between us, at any time, at any level," it was President Lee's expected but strategically right decision that he accepted the North Korean delegation's request to meet with him. North Korea also did not hide its 'rare' friendless to exude toward the South this time, which was strikingly different from what the North has until recently called President Lee a "traitor" by making a blanket condemnation of the President Lee's North Korea policy.
North Korea had lifted border traffic restrictions it had unilaterally imposed in last December and proposed to hold inter-Korean governmental talks regarding the normalization of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex before the North Korean delegation would leave for Seoul. These indicate without question that the North wants to engage in talks with the South at the government level. Although it was reported that President Lee explained to the North Korean delegation his government's consistent and firm policy toward the North, it seems to be a way of improving the stalled inter-Korean relations sooner or later. The first positive signal from North Korea will likely be a release of four South Korean fishermen who remain in custody of North Korea since their boat strayed into North Korean waters in the East Sea on July 30.
Indeed, a lot of North Korea experts had every reason to expect that the most significant moment of conciliatory signals would be likely ignited by the so-called condolences diplomacy, mainly because the Democratic People's Republic of Korea quickly decided to send to the state funeral of the former President Kim six-member delegation accompanied by key North Korean officials in charge of inter-Korean affairs. And it was a very rare moment that the high-profile North Korean entourage led by Kim Ki-nam, secretary of the North Korean Worker's Party Central Committee and Kim Yang-gon, a party department director in charge of inter-Korean affairs expressed publicly its intention to "talk with everyone," upon flying to Seoul on August 21.
The second meaningful moment came from Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun who returned to Seoul on August 17 after meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. They have reportedly made a five-point agreement that includes a resumption of the suspended tourism of Mt. Geumgang and Gaeseong as soon as possible. Equally meaningful, South and North Korea will likely to provide reunion of separated families and relatives in Mt. Geumgang on the day of Chuseok or harvest moon day this year. A daughter-in-law of the late Chung Joo-young, the founder of Hyundai Group, who had paved the way for inter-Korean reconciliation, Chairwoman Hyun quickly briefed her government officials about what she saw, heard, and discussed with the North Korean leader.
The businesswoman's visit aimed at focusing upon the stable and sustainable relationship of cooperation between the conglomerate company and North Korea was the inevitable consequence so as to revive her financially deteriorating company mainly caused by the worsening inter-Korean relationship. Now to distinguish between North Korea and the fate of Hyundai is false, since the former is greatly dependent upon the latter. My judgment is that Mrs. Hyun has assumed a crucial role of delivering the South's message to the North in one way or another.
The last but most important moment of reconciliatory moves toward the communist North Korea was made by former U.S. President Bill Clinton's surprise visit to Pyongyang. Mr. Clinton already offered a series of official advice to President Barrack Obama and his national security aides. Even though some South Korean officials tend to make light of Mr. Clinton's visit and outcome, scores of North Korea experts believed that both Seoul and Washington would be able to come much closer to the exact moment of truth regarding the health condition and judgment capacity of the sick leader than before. It is because the health condition of the 'Dear Leader' Kim is fundamentally part of a terrifying array of issues that will define a new characteristic to the so-called order rearrangement in Northeast Asia where the Cold War foreign policy of U.S. and China over the Korean Peninsula still exists.
Given the North Korean leader could survive longer than people expect in terms of physical strength and political influence, it is time to understand the environment for what it is: the raison d'être of the regime in the Stalinist state. The political and strategic impact of nuclear weapons development, worsening economy, refugee flows, uncertain power succession, and an ailing leader will be the core foreign policy challenge from which most others will ultimately emanate. To do so, both Seoul and Washington need to find a more realistic way of engagement based on a longer stick and a sweeter carrot to enable Pyongyang to debunk the nuclear myth.
