Thailand: Spanish Civil War Redux?

Bangkok circa 2009 is looking more and more like Madrid circa 1936. That was the year that the bloody Spanish Civil War began, which lasted until 1939 and killed hundreds of thousands. Could such a bloody event engulf the Land of Smiles?

The government headed by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, which took office after the judges disenfranchised enough members of parliament for the old government to lose its majority, at first seemed to calm things down. But anti-government sentiments have been building again, culminating in this weekend’s sacking of the East Asian Summit at the resort town of Pattaya and the imposition of emergency rule.

From his exile in Dubai, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a coup in 2006, called openly for revolution and for the army to rebel. “This is the golden moment,” he proclaimed. “We will make history.” Meanwhile, troops reportedly fired on protesters in the capital for the first time since the long-running political crisis in Thailand began more than three years ago.

Back to Spain. In 1931 the Spaniards adopted a new liberal constitution and enshrined strict separation of the monarchy and government. Similarly, Thailand adopted a liberal constitution in 1997 (since abrogated by the 2006 coup) with numerous checks and balances. The King is already a constitutional monarch.

The Spanish crisis was preceded by several elections that, though considered fair, failed to satisfy one side or the other. Thailand has held two recent elections, one in 2006 that was annulled by the courts, and another election in December 2007 that was won by the party headed by ex-prime minister Somchai Wongsawat, generally considered a proxy for Thaksin.

In the months leading up to the Spanish Civil War both sides turned increasingly to vigilantism. Just as in the case of Thailand, red-shirted protesters stormed the East Asian summit venue with sticks and slingshots, but then they learned their tactics from the opposition (now the government) in its illegal seizure of the capital’s two main airport last year.

Thailand is dividing on several lines, between the “red shirts” worn by the anti-government protestrrs, and the “yellow shirts” worn by the supporters of the present government, formerly anti-government protesters themselves. There are geographical divisions as well, between the people of the Thai heartland, those around Bangkok and between the south and those living in the north and northeast.

The former government, loyal to Thaksin, had some attributes of the Republican or Loyalist side of the Spanish Civil War. They claimed the mantle of legitimacy, endorsed by the most recent election and elections before that. Meanwhile, it was common, for Westerners anyway, to describe with some justification last summer’s protesters as “fascists.”

Yellow shirts and red shirts, fascists and democrats, monarchists and anti-monarchists, class against class – it all seems so retro, like an old movie from the 20th-century. The scourge of the 21st century is supposed to be Islamic anomie, turned to terrorism not class warfare.

Until now King Bhumibol has said little and done nothing that anyone knows about to defuse the crisis as he has intervened in crises past to restore a balance of power and maintain the peace. It is feared that the 82 year-old King may be too feeble, or too sick, to make his weight and tremendous prestige felt once again.

The current protesters claim that they too support the King, but their enthusiasm for the monarchy is markedly thinner than those now in power and usually called “yellow shirts,” since that color denotes loyalty to the King. But the “red shirt” movement is beginning to take on the color of republicanism.

One long-time resident of Thailand recently told me: “I never thought I’d see the day when the [Royal] family lost its popularity and prestige, but it is seen as siding with the yellow shirts against the red shirts, who don’t hold up his portraits [at their protests].”

And it may be that the forces that are tearing the country apart are not any longer amenable to the King personal kind of palliative. Perhaps in the past he gained his reputation for even-handedness by adjudicating disputes only among the Thai elite. This may be one crisis, because it involves a much wider swath of society, that the Thai people have to settle for themselves.

One major difference between Thailand 2009 and Spain 1936 is the supreme lack of interest by anyone outside of Thailand. The Spanish Civil War was a landmark event in 20th century history because it became a kind of proxy war between democracy and the rising forces of communism in the Soviet Union and fascism in Germany and Italy.

Nobody outside of Thailand has a dog in this fight, even as the country unravels.

Maybe only those of us who have lived or visited there can feel the horror as the events unfold and feel the embarrassment expressed even by the local media: “Yesterday was a truly shameful day for our country, which had its international reputation destroyed, said the Bangkok Post.

Perhaps I am an alarmist. Maybe the two sides will back away from the ultimate clash. Maybe the King will, for the last time in his long reign, spread his special balm and calm the situation. Maybe the red shirts will temper their protests or maybe the army will step in once again and restore stability the verdict of the courts. But I wouldn’t count on it.