Israel: The Missing Piece
The headlines following Netanyahu's formation of his government, and especially his pick of Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, could lead one to believe it was the end of days. Accusations turned into headlines have become commonplace, ranging from "Israel's Lieberman Problem," to "'Netanyahu and Lieberman Are the Gravediggers of the Peace Process.'" The tragic thing is that these headlines are not too far off when it comes to the Two-State Solution. What is even more tragic is that now is the best time for Israel to commit itself to a Palestinian state.
Even though it appears that Netanyahu's government is unable to commit itself to the peace process, Israelis and Palestinians have. A recent Tel Aviv University poll found that 56% and 78% of Israel's Jews and Arabs support the Two-State Solution over a bi-national state. Despite the dire predictions of American-Israeli fallout due to Netanyahu's intransigence, 54% and 59% of Israeli Jews and Arabs believe his government will maintain good relations and advance the peace process.
With these expectations, and the strategic relationship Israel has with the United States, Israel cannot afford to alienate its bulwark of a friend. As Lieberman quips that "the peace process is at a dead end," White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel (a Jewish leader whose father was in the far-right Irgun faction during the British Mandate in Palestine) asserts that "In the next four years there is going to be a permanent status arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians on the basis of two states for two peoples, and it doesn't matter to us at all who is prime minister." It is not just that the new Obama Administration promises better results than President Bush's disastrous Middle-East forays: several other significant events and trends point towards a need to revive the Two-State Solution.
The war in Gaza, regardless of whether its premises were legitimate or not, seems to have achieved the same standstill as the 2006 war in Lebanon. Recently, a RAND Corporation study titled "How Terrorist Groups End" analyzed 648 terrorist groups from 1968 to 2006. The report found that of the 268 that ended, 54% ended by political means, and only 7% by military force. This brings truth to the inversion of the famous Carl Von Clausewitz maxim that "War is the continuation of politics by other means," i.e., politics is the continuation of war by others means. A political process-the Two-State Solution-can achieve what military solutions have been unable to. What is more relevant, is a recent United Nations Development Program report titled "The Mapping of Youth Organizations" that showed 69% of Palestinian youth do not believe that violence is effective to resolve the conflict, as opposed to only 8% in favor. Resorting to force has not worked for either side, and any short-term gains promise only to bury long-term prospects for a settlement.
Despite the vitriol spewed by and about Iran, the Persian state and its proxy armies have done more to make Israel friends in a troubled region than Israel could do for herself. Egypt's recent arrests of 49 alleged Hezbollah operatives and spies operating with the intention of carrying out terrorist attacks in Egypt and Israel, as well as Iran's accusations that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are planning to assassinate Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, highlight the divisions within the region. The revolutionary Shia Islam camp, represented by Iran, Syria, Qatar (by virtue of its monarchy owning Al-Jazeera), Hamas, and Hezbollah, has made temporary friends of Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Fatah. Israel would be wise to make the most of such odd bedfellows.
Recently there have been positive signals that Syria wants out of this alignment: Syrian Ambassador to the United States Imad Moustapha gave an interview on CNN in which he stressed that a Syrian-Israeli peace track could be pursued separately from a Palestinian-Israeli peace track. This is important because then the conflict becomes less of a conflict among people, i.e., the Arab-Israeli conflict, and more of a manageable conflict between states. This is what led to the Egyptian and Jordanian peace with Israel. Working towards a viable Palestinian state would undercut Iran's rhetoric and allies, give Israel's temporary friends the respite from the Arab street they desperately need, and positively impact other peace tracks in the region.
Lastly, the unchecked growth of the settlements in the West Bank will create one state for two people, ensuring that the conflict will continue ad infinitum. If this happens, then Israel would have to give the Palestinians the right to vote in order to maintain her cherished democratic character. The other options need not be discussed. Israel cannot postpone addressing the settlements, for her sake and the Palestinians'.
Regardless of the right pieces falling into place, there is one missing piece of this puzzle: Israel. While Netanyahu has been diplomatic about such a solution, preferring to advocate an economic peace in the West Bank (seemingly improbable given the expanding settlements), he has been mum on a state for the Palestinians. What is promising is that he explicitly rejected two coalition members' request to insert a clause against a Palestinian state into their coalition. Unfortunately, his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has been all too public in his opposition to a Palestinian State, bringing him scorn from Israel's traditional allies. Lieberman's' subtle racism is embarrassing for Israel, and cannot be sustainable. In the event that sufficient leverage is placed on Netanyahu to advance a Palestinian state, Lieberman will either have to resign, or comply. The former is much more likely, especially considering the ongoing investigation for bribery and money laundering.
Opponents to the Two State Solution will always request certain preconditions for negotiations, before talking, and before acting. The rejectionists will always claim that the time is not right, that the Palestinian Authority is too weak, that it is impossible to make peace with the Palestinians when they are not at peace with themselves, that negotiations will being more terrorism. This is absurd because the logical conclusion is to wait for the necessary conditions for merely discussing peace to miraculously arise. If peace is difficult enough to attain, then demanding the proper conditions to even discuss it makes achieving peace that much more impossible.
There will always be excuses, many legitimate, many imagined or embellished. There are always challenges and obstacles to peace. But they are only obstacles as long as there is a forward moving momentum towards an agreed upon goal. Otherwise, they will simply remain the status quo. And that is the scariest thing about this explosive puzzle.
